Who Remained in Poverty, Who Moved Up, and Who Fell Down? An Investigation of Poverty Dynamics in Senegal in the Late 2000s
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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Poverty estimates based on cross-section
data provide static snapshots of poverty rates. Although a
time series of cross-section data can offer some insights
into poverty trends, it does not allow for an assessment of
dynamics at the household level. Such a dynamic perspective
on poverty generally calls for panel data and this kind of
analysis can usefully inform poverty reduction policy,
notably the design of social protection interventions.
Absent actual panel data for Senegal, this paper applies new
statistical methods to construct synthetic panel data from
two rounds of cross-section household surveys in 2005 and
2011. These data are used to study poverty transitions. The
results suggest that, in marked contrast to the picture
obtained from cross-section data, there exists a great deal
of mobility in and out of poverty during this period. More
than half the population experiences changes in its poverty
status and more than two-thirds of the extreme (food) poor
move up one or two welfare categories. Factors such as rural
residence, disability, exposure to some kind of natural
disaster, and informality in the labor market are associated
with a heightened risk of falling into poverty. Belonging to
certain ethnicities and factors such as migration, working
in the non-agriculture sector, and having access to social
capital are associated with a lower risk of falling into poverty.
Palabras clave
ABSOLUTE TERMS, ANNUAL GROWTH, ANNUAL GROWTH RATE, CASH TRANSFERS, CHANGES IN POVERTY, CHRONIC POVERTY, CHRONICALLY POOR, CHRONICALLY POOR FAMILIES, CONSUMPTION GROWTH, CORRELATES OF POVERTY, COUNTRY CASE, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION, CUMULATIVE DISTRIBUTION FUNCTION, DATA SETS, DENSITY FUNCTION, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT RESEARCH, DIVERSIFICATION, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMICS LETTERS, EDUCATION LEVEL, EMPIRICAL APPLICATION, EMPLOYMENT STATUS, ERROR TERMS, ESTIMATION RESULTS, EXTREME POOR HOUSEHOLDS, EXTREME POVERTY, FEMALE-HEADED HOUSEHOLDS, FOOD POVERTY, FOOD POVERTY LINE, FORM OF POVERTY, GEOGRAPHICAL REGIONS, GLOBAL POVERTY, GROWTH RATE, HOUSEHOLD COMPOSITION, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PER CAPITA, HOUSEHOLD DEMOGRAPHICS, HOUSEHOLD HEAD, HOUSEHOLD HEADS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, HOUSEHOLD SURVEYS, HOUSEHOLD WELFARE, HUMAN CAPITAL, INCOME, INCOME DYNAMICS, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCOME LEVELS, INEQUALITY, INSURANCE, LABOR MARKET, MEASURING POVERTY, NATURAL DISASTER, NATURAL DISASTERS, NON-POOR GROUP, NON-POOR HOUSEHOLDS, PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION, PER CAPITA GROWTH, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLITICAL ECONOMY, POOR, POOR HOUSEHOLDS, POOR POPULATION, POPULATION GROUP, POVERTY ASSESSMENT, POVERTY DECLINE, POVERTY DYNAMICS, POVERTY ESTIMATES, POVERTY GROUPS, POVERTY LINES, POVERTY RATE, POVERTY RATES, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION POLICIES, POVERTY STATUS, POVERTY TRAPS, PRIMARY EDUCATION, PRO-POOR, PRO-POOR GROWTH, REGIONAL DUMMY, RURAL, RURAL AREAS, RURAL COUNTERPARTS, RURAL FEMALE, RURAL HOUSEHOLDS, RURAL POOR, RURAL RESIDENCE, RURAL ROADS, SAFETY NET, SAFETY NET PROGRAMS, SCHOOL ATTENDANCE, SCHOOLING, SOCIAL CAPITAL, SOCIAL PROTECTION, TARGETING, UNDERSTANDING OF POVERTY, URBAN AREAS, URBAN POOR, VULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS