More Growth or Fewer Collapses? A New Look at Long Run Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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Low and highly volatile growth define
Africa's growth experience. But there is no evidence
that growth volatility is associated to long term economic
performance. This result may be misleading if it suggests
that volatility is not important for economic and social
progress. In this paper we use a variant of the method
developed by Hausmann, Pritchett, and Rodrik (2005) to
identify both growth acceleration and deceleration episodes
in Africa between 1975 and 2005. The authors find that
Africa has had numerous growth acceleration episodes in the
last 30 years, but also nearly a comparable number of growth
collapses, offsetting most of the benefits of growth. Had
Africa avoided its growth collapses, it would have grown 1.7
percent a year instead of 0.7 percent, and its GDP per
capita would have been more than 30 percent higher in 2005.
The authors also find that growth accelerations and
decelerations have an asymmetric impact on human development
outcomes. Finally, our results suggest that it is easier to
identify the likely institutional and policy origins of
growth decelerations than of growth accelerations.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTABILITY, ACTUAL GROWTH, AGGREGATE LEVEL, AMERICAN ECONOMIC REVIEW, AVERAGE GROWTH, AVERAGE GROWTH RATE, AVERAGE GROWTH RATES, AVERAGE INCOME, CAPITA INCOME GROWTH, CONSUMER PRICE, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CORRELATION ANALYSIS, CORRELATION COEFFICIENT, CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS, CORRUPTION, COUNTRY DATA, COUNTRY LEVEL, CROSS COUNTRY, CROSS COUNTRY EVIDENCE, DEPENDENT VARIABLE, DETERMINANTS OF GROWTH, DEVELOPING REGIONS, DEVELOPMENT GOALS, DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, DIRECT INVESTMENT, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC CONTRACTIONS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC LITERATURE, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC REFORMS, EFFECTS OF VOLATILITY, EMPIRICAL STUDIES, ESTIMATED COEFFICIENTS, EXCHANGE RATE, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, GOOD GOVERNANCE, GOVERNANCE INDICATOR, GOVERNANCE INDICATORS, GOVERNMENT CONSUMPTION, GOVERNMENT EFFECTIVENESS, GROWTH ACCELERATIONS, GROWTH PATH, GROWTH PERFORMANCE, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, GROWTH SUCCESSES, GROWTH VOLATILITY, HEALTH OUTCOMES, HIGH GROWTH, HIGH INFLATION, HIGHER VOLATILITY, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME PER CAPITA, INFANT MORTALITY, INSTITUTIONAL PERFORMANCE, INSTITUTIONAL VARIABLES, INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND, LINK BETWEEN VOLATILITY, LONG RUN, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MEDIUM TERM, MEDIUM TERM GROWTH, NATIONAL ACCOUNTS, NATURAL RESOURCES, OIL EXPORTERS, OVERALL RATE OF GROWTH, PER CAPITA GROWTH, PER CAPITA INCOME, POLICY MAKERS, POLICY RESEARCH, POLITICAL CONDITIONS, POLITICAL STABILITY, POOR GOVERNANCE, POVERTY REDUCTION, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGY, PRIVATE SECTOR, PUBLIC POLICY, PURCHASING POWER, RAPID GROWTH, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL EFFECTIVE EXCHANGE RATE, REGULATORY QUALITY, RICH COUNTRIES, RULE OF LAW, SHARP REDUCTION, SOCIAL OUTCOMES, SOCIAL VARIABLES, STAGNATION, STRUCTURAL BREAK, STRUCTURAL POLICIES, SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA, SUSTAINABLE GROWTH, THE GAMBIA, UNDER 5 MORTALITY