Assessing the Economic Impacts of Climate Change on Agriculture in Egypt : A Ricardian Approach
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This study employed the Ricardian
approach to measure the economic impacts of climate change
on farm net revenue in Egypt. Farm net revenue were
regressed against climate, soil, socioeconomic and
hydrological variables to determine which factors influence
the variability of farm net revenues. 900 households from 20
governorates were interviewed. The standard Ricardian model
was applied, in addition to three other models, each
representing an adaptation option that could be used to
reduce the harmful effects of temperature stress. A further
adaptation strategy was tested: raising livestock on the
farm to cope with the harmful effects of climate change.
Besides this, the effects of two climate change scenarios
(using MAGICC/SCENGEN and GCMs-General Circulation Models)
were considered. The results from the two climate change
scenarios showed that high temperatures will constrain
agricultural production in Egypt. Irrigation and technology
are therefore the recommended adaptation options. However,
warming may also affect water resources and that would pose
another problem for agricultural production. A policy should
be developed to cope with the adverse effects of climate
change on agriculture. It should focus on three areas: crop
management, water management, and land management. The
favored option for adapting to increased temperatures is
irrigation. Some farmers adjust their crop sowing dates to
avoid the expected high temperatures. To adjust to shortages
in rainfall, farmers use crop varieties with high water use
efficiency and early maturing varieties.
Palabras clave
ACCESS TO INFORMATION, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, AGRICULTURAL EXTENSION, AGRICULTURAL LAND, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH, AGRICULTURAL RESIDUES, AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS, AGRICULTURE, AGROCLIMATOLOGY, ANIMAL FEED, ANIMALS, AVAILABILITY OF WATER, BARLEY, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE RESEARCH, CLIMATE CHANGES, CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE VARIABLES, CLIMATE VARIATION, CLIMATIC CHANGE, CLIMATIC CONDITIONS, CLIMATIC REGIONS, CO2, COST MINIMIZATION, COTTON, CROP, CROP MANAGEMENT, CROP PRODUCTION, CROP ROTATION, CROP VARIETIES, CROP YIELD, CROP YIELDS, CROPLAND, CROPPING, CROPPING INTENSITY, CROPS, CULTIVARS, DATES, DRAINAGE, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ECONOMIC IMPACTS, EGGS, ENVIRONMENTAL, ENVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION, EQUILIBRIUM, EQUIPMENT, FAO, FARM, FARM ACTIVITIES, FARM REVENUES, FARMER, FARMERS, FARMING, FARMING SYSTEMS, FARMS, FAVA BEANS, FERTILIZER, FERTILIZERS, FIELD CROPS, FRUITS, GCM, GDP, GLOBAL WARMING, GRAIN, HEAT WAVES, HIGH-YIELDING VARIETIES, HUSBANDRY, HYDROLOGICAL MODEL, INCOME, INPUT PRICES, INTERCROPPING, INTERGOVERNMENTAL PANEL ON CLIMATE CHANGE, IPCC, IRRIGATION, LAND MANAGEMENT, LAND VALUE, LIVESTOCK, MAIZE, MAIZE PRODUCTION, MARGINAL ANALYSIS, MARKET PRICES, MEAT, MULCHING, NEW TECHNOLOGIES, ONIONS, PESTICIDE, PESTICIDES, PLANTING, POTATOES, POTENTIAL IMPACTS, POULTRY, POULTRY PRODUCTS, PRECIPITATION, PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS, PRODUCTION OF RICE, PRODUCTION SYSTEM, PRODUCTION SYSTEMS, PRODUCTIVITY, RAINFALL, RAINFED AREAS, SEED, SEEDS, SOCIOECONOMIC VARIABLES, SOIL, SOIL TYPES, SOILS, SORGHUM, SOWING, SOYBEANS, SPRING, SUGAR, SUGAR BEET, SUGAR CANE, SUGARCANE, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE DATA, TOMATOES, TREES, UTILITY FUNCTIONS, VEGETABLES, WATER AVAILABILITY, WATER MANAGEMENT, WATER RESOURCES, WATER SOURCE, WATER SUPPLY, WATER USE, WHEAT, WORLD FOOD SUPPLY, YIELDS