Forecasts and Adaptation
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For many environmental problems, economics adaptation will likely be the primary means by which potential damages are avoided. How and by how much humans adapt to environmental risks, therefore, is a question of paramount importance. This paper uses a novel dataset documenting the introduction of forecasts of an important, global driver of climate variation—El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—to derive the first well identified estimates of total adaptation in a climate exposed industry. The primary results indicate that for the setting under consideration, risks from ENSO events can be almost entirely mitigated given 3 months of advance warning. This adaptation comes from a combination of daily and annual actions. In sum, the results point both to the ability for individuals in some settings to mitigate their own environmental risks given high quality information.