Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion

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dc.creatorRobertson, Richard D.
dc.creatorPinto, Alessandro de
dc.creatorCenacchi, Nicola
dc.date2023-08
dc.date2023-08-02T20:52:03Z
dc.date2023-08-02T20:52:03Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:08:24Z
dc.descriptionThe geographic distribution of natural ecosystems is afected by both climate and cropland. Discussions of future land use/land cover usually focus on how cropland expands and displaces natural vegetation especially as climate change impacts become stronger. Less commonly considered is the direct infuence of climate change on natural ecosystems simultaneously with cropland incursion. We combine a natural vegetation model responsive to climate with a cropland allocation algorithm to assess the relative importance of climate change compared to cropland incursion. Globally, the model indicates that climate change drives larger gains and losses than cropland incursion. For example, in the Amazonian rainforests, more than one sixth of the forest area could be lost due to climate change with cropland playing virtually no role. Our fndings suggest that policies to protect specific ecosystems may be undercut by climate change and that localized analyses that fully account for the impacts of a changing climate on natural vegetation and agriculture are necessary to formulate policies that preserve natural ecosystems over the long term.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/131382
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/95715
dc.languageen
dc.publisherSpringer
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceRobertson, Richard D.; De Pinto, Alessandro; and Cenacchi, Nicola. 2023. Assessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion. Climatic Change 176(8): 108. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-023-03584-3
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectclimate
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectecosystems
dc.subjectfarmland
dc.subjectvegetation
dc.titleAssessing the future global distribution of land ecosystems as determined by climate change and cropland incursion
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)