Commune-level Simulation Model of HPAI H5N1 Poultry Infection and Control in Viet Nam
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This report describes a farm-based disease transmission model that approximates the dynamics of HPAI H5N1 outbreaks in Vietnam poultry farms. During model experimentation the impact of varying different sets of epidemiological parameters on the number of infected farms, the force of infection and on the net reproductive number within a commune were simulated. The average net reproductive number (secondary cases arising from one infected farm in a vaccinated population), Rn, in the most lenient c ontrol scenario was 2.26. Current disease control measures are predicted to significantly reduce disease transmission but do not completely eliminate the possibility for circulation of residual infection (Rn. = 1.05). A disease control optimization process which takes into account the differences in farm structure between geographical regions shows that optimal disease control policies differ, depending on local conditions. However, they also suggest that complete elimination of HPAI H5N1 from d omestic poultry in Vietnam requires high levels of vaccination coverage of S4 backyard farms, levels that are unlikely to be achievable. Therefore, more attention must be paid to early detection of infection and reduced response time.