Determining Land Values Using Ordinary Least Squares Regression
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Agricultural land values have increased
by an average of 21 percent each year
since 2010 until recently when commodity
prices dropped substantially. The
accompanying decrease in profitability
raises concerns that current land prices
are not sustainable. This study presents
a regression analysis of land prices in
Kansas using data from 2012 through
June 2014. Regression allows valuation
of individual characteristics of land
parcels as well as time adjustments. Prices
projected by the model trended upward
through 2013, but decreased between the
last quarter of 2013 and the first quarter
of 2014, suggesting that prices for land
may have peaked in 2013.