Government Health Spending Outlook - Projections Through 2029

Kurowski, Christoph; Schmidt, Martin; Evans, David B.; Tandon, Ajay; Eozenou, Patrick Hoang-Vu; Cain, Jewelwayne Salcedo; Pambudi, Eko Setyo

Government Health Spending Outlook - Projections Through 2029

Autores

Eozenou, Patrick Hoang-Vu

Cain, Jewelwayne Salcedo

Pambudi, Eko Setyo

Editor

Washington, DC: World Bank

Descripción

This paper examines the implications of the IMF’s April 2024 macro-fiscal forecast updates on government health expenditure (GHE) across 170 economies through 2029, covering nearly all years remaining to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). The findings reveal wide disparities in governments' capacities to increase health spending, with differences not only observed across income groups but also within them. Primary concerns focus to two groups of low- and lower middle-income countries: the first group is projected to experience a contraction in real per capita GHE from 2019 and 2029, threatening to reverse progress toward the health SDG targets, while the other group faces stagnation in real per capita GHE, greatly limiting advancement. The insights presented are crucial for health policymakers and their external partners to respond to evolving macro-fiscal circumstances and stabilize investment growth in health. While increasing the priority of health in spending is a key policy option, it will not be sufficient on its own. Effective responses also require improving spending efficiency and addressing broader fiscal challenges. Without decisive action, many countries have little chance of achieving the health SDGs. 