Building resilience in Rwanda’s potato sector with late blight-resistant varieties
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Potato is a key food security and income crop for smallholder farmers in Rwanda, yet late blight caused by Phytophthora infestans remains one of the most devastating constraints, leading to yield losses of 13–60% and up to 75% when uncontrolled. This policy brief assesses the potential economic and social impacts of deploying late blight–resistant biotech potato varieties developed by stacking three resistance genes (3R-gene) into farmer-preferred cultivars, Shangi and Victoria. Using an ex ante economic surplus model (DREAMpy), results indicate average annual net benefits of RWF 4,514 million (USD 3.64 million) for 3R-gene Shangi and RWF 2,020 million (USD 1.63 million) for 3R-gene Victoria, with farmers capturing most of the gains. Baseline projections suggest that Shangi could lift about 909 people out of poverty per year and Victoria about 407 per year. Sensitivity analysis shows that benefits remain positive under less favorable assumptions, though delays in release significantly reduce gains. The brief highlights the importance of timely regulatory approval, strong seed systems, inclusive rollout strategies, and clear risk communication to fully realize the food security, income, and environmental benefits of 3R-gene potato in Rwanda.
Palabras clave
potatoes, phytophthora infestans, disease resistance