Afghanistan Development Update, April 2016
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The withdrawal of international security
forces since 2014 and continuing political uncertainties
have resulted in a significant deceleration to economic
growth, with fiscal pressures increasing as security threats
mount. However, to a significant extent, Afghanistan has
successfully managed the immediate challenges resulting from
the transition. It has maintained macroeconomic stability
and established the conditions for a slow recovery of the
economy. Risks to the economy remain significant, and it is
vital that the Government identify new sources of growth to
replace the declining donor inflows over the longer-term.
The medium-term outlook points towards a slow recovery over
the next three years. The rate of growth is projected to
reach 1.9 percent in 2016, assuming adjustments in firms and
households’ behavior in the context of the deteriorating
security environment. Growth is projected to gradually
increase from 1.9 percent in 2016 to 3.6 percent in 2018, if
the political situation stabilizes and planned reforms are
successfully implemented. On the other hand, any
deterioration in the security environment could weaken
growth prospects, with this risk being the most significant
faced by the country.
Palabras clave
AUCTION, MONETARY POLICY, DEFICIT, WITHDRAWAL, DEPOSIT, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, ACCOUNTING, DEPOSITS, BROAD MONEY, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, INFORMATION SYSTEM, INTEREST, INTERNATIONAL SECURITY, EXCHANGE, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, LIQUIDITY, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, POLITICAL ECONOMY, REVENUES, PORTFOLIO, LOAN, TAX, CASH TRANSFER, INCOME TAX, BUDGETING, RESERVE, INFLATION, INTERNATIONAL BANK, PENSION, BUDGET, BANK LENDING, CENTRAL BANK, MATURITY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, HUMAN RESOURCE, LABOR MARKET, TRADE BALANCE, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, CURRENCY, HOUSING FINANCE, LEGISLATIVE FRAMEWORK, GOVERNMENT POLICY, TELECOMMUNICATIONS, COMMERCIAL BANK, HOST COUNTRIES, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, TAX REGIME, RECURRENT EXPENDITURES, MONETARY FUND, CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, MARKETS, DEBT, CAPITAL NOTES, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, RETURN, INFLATION RATE, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, COMMERCIAL BANK LOANS, FINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENTS, INCOME LEVELS, DIRECT INVESTMENT, LOANS, INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITIES, RESERVES, RULE OF LAW, CASH TRANSFERS, RETURN ON ASSETS, FINANCE, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, TAXES, BANKING SECTOR, FISCAL DEFICIT, EXPENDITURE, TRANSACTIONS, POTENTIAL INVESTORS, INVESTORS, COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING, FOREIGN EXCHANGE RESERVES, GOOD, TAX RATE, FUTURE, MOBILE PHONE, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, GOVERNMENT FINANCE, CAPACITY CONSTRAINTS, FIXED CAPITAL, BUDGETS, INVESTOR CONFIDENCE, INTEREST PAYMENT, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, GOVERNMENT REVENUE, EXPENDITURES, ECONOMIC EFFICIENCY, MARKET, POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, SECURITIES, POLITICAL UNCERTAINTIES, MICROFINANCE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, TAX CODE, CURRENCY DEPRECIATION, GOODS, INVESTOR, SECURITY, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENT, DEGREE OF RISK, BANK LOANS, INVESTMENT, COMMERCIAL BANKS, INVESTMENT PORTFOLIO, SHARE, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, POVERTY, FINANCIAL MARKETS, TARIFF, CAPITAL INFLOWS, REVENUE, EXTERNAL DEBT, TAX POLICY, PROFIT, INVESTMENTS, RISK MANAGEMENT, LENDING, TRUST FUND, EXCHANGE RATE, GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT, INSTRUMENT, INSTITUTIONAL CAPACITIES, REMITTANCES, PUBLIC SPENDING, PROFITS, COMMODITY PRICES, ARREARS, GUARANTEE, NONPERFORMING LOANS, DEBT RELIEF