The Luxembourg Agreement Reform of the CAP: an Analysis Using the AG-MEMOD Composite Model
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In this paper we present the results for EU-15 of a simulation of the Luxembourg CAP reform
based on the AG-MEMOD composite model. This dynamic partial equilibrium econometric
multi products model comprises of national country level sub-models that are combined to be
linked and solved in prices generating projections for each country, and the entire EU, for each
year to a 10-year horizon.
Under the Luxembourg reform scenario simulated direct payments in the grains and oilseeds,
cattle and beef, and sheep commodity market organisations are fully decoupled. Intervention
price reductions for butter agreed as part of the reform are also considered. The impact
of the Luxembourg Agreement reform scenario is measured against a Baseline of a continuation
of Agenda 2000 agricultural policy. The impact of the Luxembourg Agreement reform
scenario is measured against a Baseline of a continuation of Agenda 2000 EU agricultural
policy.