Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks

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dc.creatorNelson, Gerald C.
dc.creatorValin, Hugo
dc.creatorSands, Ronald D.
dc.creatorHavlík, Petr
dc.creatorAhammad, H.
dc.creatorDeryng, Delphine
dc.creatorElliott J
dc.creatorFujimori, Shinichiro
dc.creatorHasegawa, Tomoko
dc.creatorHeyhoe, Edwina
dc.creatorKyle, Page
dc.creatorLampe M. von
dc.creatorLotze-Campen, Hermann
dc.creatorMason-D'Croz, Daniel
dc.creatorMeijl, Hans van
dc.creatorMensbrugghe, Dominique van der
dc.creatorMüller, Christoph
dc.creatorPopp, Alexander
dc.creatorRobertson, Richard D.
dc.creatorRobinson, Sherman
dc.creatorSchmid, Erwin
dc.creatorSchmitz, Christoph
dc.creatorTabeau, Andrzej
dc.creatorWillenbockel, Dirk
dc.date2014-03-04
dc.date2014-12-16T06:37:34Z
dc.date2014-12-16T06:37:34Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:43:50Z
dc.descriptionAgricultural production is sensitive to weather and thus directly affected by climate change. Plausible estimates of these climate change impacts require combined use of climate, crop, and economic models. Results from previous studies vary substantially due to differences in models, scenarios, and data. This paper is part of a collective effort to systematically integrate these three types of models. We focus on the economic component of the assessment, investigating how nine global economic models of agriculture represent endogenous responses to seven standardized climate change scenarios produced by two climate and five crop models. These responses include adjustments in yields, area, consumption, and international trade. We apply biophysical shocks derived from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s representative concentration pathway with end-of-century radiative forcing of 8.5 W/m2. The mean biophysical yield effect with no incremental CO2 fertilization is a 17% reduction globally by 2050 relative to a scenario with unchanging climate. Endogenous economic responses reduce yield loss to 11%, increase area of major crops by 11%, and reduce consumption by 3%. Agricultural production, cropland area, trade, and prices show the greatest degree of variability in response to climate change, and consumption the lowest. The sources of these differences include model structure and specification; in particular, model assumptions about ease of land use conversion, intensification, and trade. This study identifies where models disagree on the relative responses to climate shocks and highlights research activities needed to improve the representation of agricultural adaptation responses to climate change.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/52118
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/113003
dc.languageen
dc.publisherNational Academy of Sciences
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/154049
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/154027
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceNelson GC, Valin H, Sands RD, Havlík P, Ahammad H, Deryng D, Elliott J, Fujimori S, Hasegawa T, Heyhoe E, Kyle P, Von Lampe M, Lotze-Campen H, Mason-d’Croz D, van Meijl H, van der Mensbrugghe D, Müller C, Popp A, Robertson RD, Robinson S, Schmid E, Schmitz C, Tabeau A, Willenbockel D. 2013. Climate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America (PNAS) 111(9):3274-3279
dc.subjectresource management
dc.subjecttechnological changes
dc.subjecteconomic development
dc.subjectcommodities
dc.subjectagriculture
dc.subjectassessment
dc.subjectagricultural productivity
dc.subjectprices
dc.subjectcommodity markets
dc.subjectresilience
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectmodels
dc.subjecteconomic analysis
dc.subjectshock
dc.subjectclimate
dc.subjectmalnutrition
dc.subjectnutrition
dc.subjecttrade
dc.subjectfood supply
dc.subjectplant models
dc.subjectprotected areas
dc.subjectenvironmental modelling
dc.subjectagricultural development
dc.subjectclimate change adaptation
dc.subjectfood security
dc.titleClimate change effects on agriculture: economic responses to biophysical shocks
dc.typeJournal Article

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)