Land degradation, drought and food security in a less-favoured area in the Ethiopian highlands: a bio-economic model with market imperfections
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This paper presents a bio-economic model of Andit Tid, a severely degraded crop-livestock farming system with high
population density and good market access in the highlands of Ethiopia. Land degradation, population growth, stagnant
technology, and drought threaten food security in the area. Drought or weather risk appears to have increased in recent years.
The bio-economic model is used to analyse the combined effects of land degradation, population growth, market imperfections
and increased risk of drought on household production, welfare and food security. We find that the indirect effects of drought
on household welfare through the impact on crop and livestock prices are larger than the direct production effects of drought.
Provision and adoption of credit for fertiliser, although risky in itself, may lead to increased grain production and improved
household welfare and food security. Provision of credit may have a negative effect on conservation incentives but this effect
may be mitigated by linking a conservation requirement to the provision of credit for fertiliser.
© 2003 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.