Modelling the implications for New Zealand trade and producer returns from different scenarios relating to the demand and supply of organic products
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This paper describes historical, current and potential market opportunities for organic produce
in New Zealand and overseas. New Zealand is unique as a developing country relying on
agricultural production and trade for most of its foreign exchange earnings. The challenge for
the NZ agricultural sector is to access high value markets, as consumer demand changes,
away from price, to a greater focus on food safety and concern over the environment. We
assess potential scenarios of development in the sector, using the Lincoln Trade and
Environment Model (LTEM), a partial equilibrium trade model that differentiates between
organic and conventional production methods.