Coordinating AgMIP data and models across global and regional scales for 1.5°C and 2.0°C assessments
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Royal Society
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The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has developed novel methods for Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of agriculture and food security in a changing world. The present study aims to perform a proof of concept of the CGRA to demonstrate advantages and challenges of the proposed framework. This effort responds to the request by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) for the implications of limiting global temperature increases to 1.5°C and 2.0°C above pre-industrial conditions. The CGRA consistently links disciplines, models and scales in order to track the complex chain of climate impacts and identify key vulnerabilities, feedbacks and uncertainties in managing future risk. CGRA proof-of-concept results show that, at the global scale, there are mixed areas of positive and negative simulated wheat and maize yield changes, with declines in some breadbasket regions, at both 1.5°C and 2.0°C.
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simulation models, risk management, models, production, forecasting, agricultural sector, interdisciplinary research, uncertainty, agriculture, identification, land use, climate change adaptation, climate change mitigation, food security, scales, crop modelling, prices, climate change, impact assessment