FAO Food Chain Crisis Early Warning Bulletin
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During the period October to December 2018, Food Chain Crisis (FCC) threats are expected to occur in Africa, the
Americas, Asia, Europe, and Oceania where they can persist within a country, spread to neighbouring countries,
remain latent, or re-emerge or amplify.
The dynamics and likelihood of occurrence of FCC threats depend on a number of risk factors or drivers. These
include agro-ecological factors (e.g. intensive farming systems, deforestation, overgrazing, etc.), climate change
(e.g. droughts, extreme weather events, flooding, heavy rains, heat waves, the El Niño-Southern Oscillation -ENSO,
changes in vegetation cover, water temperature, etc.), human behaviour (e.g. cultural practices, conflicts and civil
insecurity, trade, etc.) and natural disasters.
In relation to food security, and according to the last “Crop prospects and food situation” report (July to September
2018), FAO estimates that, globally, 39 countries (31 in Africa, seven in Asia, and one in Americas) are in need of
external assistance for food. Persisting conflicts continue to be the dominant factor driving high levels of severe food
insecurity. Weather shocks have also adversely affected food availability and access. FCC threats can compound
food insecurity in fragile countries stricken by weather shocks and conflicts.