Rising Food and Energy Prices in Europe and Central Asia
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Washington, DC
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The purpose of this paper is to
illustrate the channels through which rising commodity
prices might affect countries in the Europe and Central Asia
Region (ECA) in the short run and to indicate which
countries are most likely to be significantly affected. This
paper discusses the effects of the global food and energy
price increases on ECA countries from two perspectives: (a)
impacts on the macro-economy through inflation, the trade
balance, fiscal accounts and growth; and (b) distributional
impacts within countries. It aims to highlight
vulnerabilities to rising commodity prices and discusses
some policy interventions to mitigate the impact of rising
prices. It puts the ECA experience in the context of the
last commodity price increase as well the recent global
economic crisis. Section one summarizes the state of global
commodity markets. Section two discusses the main
macroeconomic channels through which commodity price
increases affect the economy. Section three discusses the
potential poverty impacts of the price increases and the
ability of countries' social assistance systems to deal
with the heightened need for social assistance. It also
discusses country responses to the crisis to date with
reference to policies followed during the 2008 price hikes.
Section four examines ECA's agriculture sector and
potential responses to the commodity price increase and
price volatility. Section five discusses the energy sector.
Bank support to ECA countries to help deal with commodity
market a development is discussed in annexes one.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURE, APPROACH, AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION, BALANCE, BREAD, CLIMATE, COMMODITY, COMMODITY MARKETS, COMMODITY PRICE, CONSUMPTION PATTERNS, COTTON PRICES, CRUDE OIL, CURRENCY, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCES, CURRENT ACCOUNT SURPLUS, DEBT, DEMAND FOR FOOD, DEMAND MANAGEMENT, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACTS, DOMESTIC INFLATION, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC CONDITIONS, ECONOMIC CRISIS, ECONOMIC STRUCTURES, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES, EMPLOYMENT, ENERGY COSTS, ENERGY EFFICIENCY, ENERGY EFFICIENCY INVESTMENTS, ENERGY EXPORTS, ENERGY MARKET, ENERGY PRICE, ENERGY PRICING, ENERGY PRODUCTS, ENERGY SUBSIDIES, ENERGY SYSTEM, ENERGY USE, EQUILIBRIUM PRICE, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, EXTERNAL FINANCING, EXTERNAL SHOCKS, EXTREME POVERTY, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FISCAL DEFICITS, FISCAL POLICIES, FOOD CONSUMPTION, FOOD IMPORTS, FOOD MARKETS, FOOD PRICE, FOOD PRICE INFLATION, FOOD PRODUCTION, FOREIGN FUNDS, FRUITS, FUEL, FUEL PRICES, FUEL SUPPLY, FUTURE PRICE, GAS, GAS PRODUCTION, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL MARKET, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HIGH ENERGY INTENSITY, HIGHER ENERGY PRICES, HOUSEHOLD BEHAVIOR, IMPORT PRICES, IMPROVEMENTS IN ENERGY EFFICIENCY, INCOME, INFLATION RATES, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET DEVELOPMENTS, MARKET PRICES, MIDDLE-INCOME COUNTRIES, MONETARY POLICY, NATURAL GAS, OIL EXPORTERS, OIL MARKETS, OIL PRICE, OIL SUPPLY, OUTPUT, PENSIONS, POLICY RESPONSE, POWER, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE CONTROLS, PRICE DECREASES, PRICE INCREASE, PRICE INDEX, PRICE INDICES, PRICE INFLATION, PRICE OF OIL, PRICE VOLATILITY, PRICING POLICIES, PUBLIC FINANCE, PURCHASING, PURCHASING POWER, RENEWABLE ENERGY, RENEWABLE ENERGY PRODUCTION, RISING COST, SAFETY NETS, SAVINGS, SOCIAL PROTECTION, SOCIAL SAFETY NET, SUBSTITUTE, SUPPLIERS, SURPLUS, SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT, TAX, TAX REVENUE, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE DEFICITS, VEGETABLES, WHEAT, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD MARKETS