Estimating spatially disaggregated probability of severe COVID-19 and the impact of handwashing interventions

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dc.creatorJoseph, George
dc.creatorMilusheva, Sveta
dc.creatorSturrock, Hugh
dc.creatorMapako, Tonderai
dc.creatorAyling, Sophie Charlotte Emi
dc.creatorHoo, Yi Rong
dc.date2023-04-05T18:34:09Z
dc.date2023-04-05T18:34:09Z
dc.date2023-04-05
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T00:35:59Z
dc.descriptionThe severity of COVID-19 disease varies substantially between individuals, with some infections being asymptomatic while others are fatal. Several risk factors have been identified that affect the progression of SARS-CoV-2 to severe COVID-19. They include age, smoking and presence of underlying comorbidities such as respiratory illness, HIV, anemia and obesity. Given that respiratory illness is one such comorbidity and is affected by hand hygiene, it is plausible that improving access to handwashing could lower the risk of severe COVID-19 among a population. In this paper, we estimate the potential impact of improved access to handwashing on the risk of respiratory illness and its knock-on impact on the risk of developing severe COVID-19 disease across Zimbabwe. We use a geospatial model that allows us to estimate differential clinical risk at the district level. Results show that the current risk of severe disease is heterogeneous across the country, due to differences in individual characteristics and household conditions. This study demonstrates how household level improved access to handwashing could lead to reductions in the risk of severe COVID-19 of up to 16% from the estimated current levels across all districts. Taken alongside the likely impact on transmission of SARS-CoV-2 itself, as well as countless other pathogens, this result adds further support for the expansion of access to handwashing across the country. It also highlights the spatial differences in risk of severe COVID-19, and thus the opportunity for better planning to focus limited resources in high risk areas in order to potentially reduce the number of severe cases.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://documents.worldbank.org/curated/en/099652002282334052/IDU08f85d845039ee0445409abe0ddfb696636e5
dc.identifierhttps://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/39636
dc.identifier10.1596/1813-9450-10328
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/407022
dc.languageEnglish
dc.languageen
dc.publisherWorld Bank, Washington, DC
dc.relationPolicy Research Working Papers; 10328
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttps://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectCOVID-19 PANDEMIC
dc.subjectCOVID SEVERITY
dc.subjectHAND WASHING INTERVENTION
dc.subjectSEVERE COVID PREVENTION
dc.subjectPUBLIC HEALTH
dc.subjectSPATIAL MODELLING
dc.subjectCORONAVIRUS
dc.titleEstimating spatially disaggregated probability of severe COVID-19 and the impact of handwashing interventions
dc.titleThe case of Zimbabwe
dc.typeWorking Paper

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