Knowing, When You Do Not Know : Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis

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dc.creatorNarayan, Ambar
dc.creatorSánchez-Páramo, Carolina
dc.date2012-03-19T08:44:04Z
dc.date2012-03-19T08:44:04Z
dc.date2012-01-12
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:05:29Z
dc.descriptionEconomists have long sought to predict how macroeconomic shocks will affect individual welfare. Macroeconomic data and forecasts are easily available when crises strike. But policy action requires not only understanding the magnitude of a macro shock, but also identifying which households or individuals are being hurt by (or benefit from) the crisis. Moreover, in many cases, impacts on the ground might be already occurring as macro developments become known, while micro level evidence is still unavailable because of paucity of data. Because of these reasons, a comprehensive real-time understanding of how the aggregate changes will translate to impacts at the micro level remains elusive. This problem is particularly acute when dealing with developing countries where household data is sporadic or out of date. This volume outlines a more comprehensive approach to the problem, showcasing a micro simulation model, developed in response to demand from World Bank staff working in countries and country governments in the wake of the global financial crisis of 2008-09. During the growing catastrophe in a few industrialized countries, there was rising concern about how the crisis would affect the developing world and how to respond to it through public policies. World Bank staff s was scrambling to help countries design such policies; this in turn required information on which groups of the population, sectors and regions the crisis would likely affect and to what extent. The volume is organized as follows. Chapter 1 summarizes the methodology underlying the micro simulation model to predict distributional impacts of the crisis, along with several case studies that highlight how the model can be used in different country contexts. Chapters 2 to 4 are written by experts external to the Bank, two of whom participated as discussants at a workshop on the micro simulation work organized in May, 2010 at the World Bank headquarters. Chapter 2 comments on the broader implications and shortcomings of applying the technique described in Chapter 1 and the ability or willingness of governments to respond adequately to its results. Chapter 3 draws parallels between the United States and developing countries to discuss the lessons that can be learned for mitigating the impacts of future crises. Chapter 4 discusses how the micro simulation approach can be sharpened to make it a better tool for distributional analysis moving forward.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000386194_20120109012250
dc.identifier978-0-8213-8981-2
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/2229
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/978-0-8213-8981-2
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/415128
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank
dc.relationWorld Bank Study
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectAGGREGATE EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectAGGREGATE INEQUALITY
dc.subjectAGGREGATE OUTPUT
dc.subjectANTI-POVERTY
dc.subjectANTI-POVERTY PROGRAMS
dc.subjectAVERAGE INCOME
dc.subjectBENEFICIARIES
dc.subjectCALORIE INTAKE
dc.subjectCONSTANT POVERTY LINE
dc.subjectCOUNTERFACTUAL
dc.subjectCRISES
dc.subjectDATA REQUIREMENTS
dc.subjectDEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES
dc.subjectDEVELOPED COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPED WORLD
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING WORLD
dc.subjectDEVELOPMENT INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL EFFECTS
dc.subjectDISTRIBUTIONAL IMPACT
dc.subjectECONOMIC CONDITIONS
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectELASTICITY
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL EVIDENCE
dc.subjectEMPIRICAL WORK
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT IMPACTS
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT STATUS
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY
dc.subjectEXTREME POVERTY LINES
dc.subjectFARMERS
dc.subjectFEMALE EMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectFEMALE PARTICIPATION
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFOOD BASKET
dc.subjectFOOD PRICE
dc.subjectFOOD PRICES
dc.subjectFOOD REQUIREMENTS
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM
dc.subjectGENERAL EQUILIBRIUM MODELS
dc.subjectGLOBAL MARKETS
dc.subjectGROWTH RATES
dc.subjectHISTORICAL DATA
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD DATA
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD HEADS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD MEMBERS
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD SURVEY
dc.subjectIMPACT ON POVERTY
dc.subjectINCOME
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTION
dc.subjectINCOME DISTRIBUTIONS
dc.subjectINCOME GAINS
dc.subjectINCOME GROUPS
dc.subjectINCOME GROWTH
dc.subjectINCOME LEVEL
dc.subjectINCOME LEVELS
dc.subjectINCOME SCALE
dc.subjectINCOME SHOCK
dc.subjectINCOME SHOCKS
dc.subjectINCOME SOURCE
dc.subjectINCOME SOURCES
dc.subjectINCOMES
dc.subjectINDIVIDUAL COUNTRIES
dc.subjectINEQUALITY
dc.subjectINEQUALITY MEASURES
dc.subjectINNOVATIONS
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE
dc.subjectLABOR FORCE PARTICIPATION
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLABOR MARKETS
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC MISMANAGEMENT
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC SHOCKS
dc.subjectMIDDLE CLASS
dc.subjectNATIONAL POVERTY
dc.subjectNEW POOR
dc.subjectNOMINAL WAGES
dc.subjectNUTRITION
dc.subjectOCCUPATIONS
dc.subjectOUTPUTS
dc.subjectPARTICIPATION RATES
dc.subjectPER CAPITA INCOME
dc.subjectPOLICY CHANGES
dc.subjectPOLICY DECISIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY DESIGN
dc.subjectPOLICY INTERVENTIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY MEASURES
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPOOR
dc.subjectPOOR HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectPOOR RURAL HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectPOPULATION GROWTH
dc.subjectPOVERTY ESTIMATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY GAP
dc.subjectPOVERTY HEADCOUNT
dc.subjectPOVERTY HEADCOUNT RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY IMPACT
dc.subjectPOVERTY IMPACTS
dc.subjectPOVERTY INCREASE
dc.subjectPOVERTY INDICES
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINE
dc.subjectPOVERTY LINES
dc.subjectPOVERTY PROGRAMS
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATE
dc.subjectPOVERTY RATES
dc.subjectPOVERTY REDUCTION
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRIVATE TRANSFERS
dc.subjectPRODUCTIVITY
dc.subjectPUBLIC POLICIES
dc.subjectPUBLIC TRANSFERS
dc.subjectREAL OUTPUT
dc.subjectRELATIVE IMPORTANCE
dc.subjectRELATIVE PRICES
dc.subjectRENTS
dc.subjectRURAL
dc.subjectRURAL AREAS
dc.subjectRURAL HOUSEHOLD
dc.subjectRURAL INCOME
dc.subjectSAFETY
dc.subjectSAFETY NET
dc.subjectSAFETY NET PROGRAMS
dc.subjectSAFETY NETS
dc.subjectSIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES
dc.subjectSOCIAL ASSISTANCE
dc.subjectSOCIAL BENEFITS
dc.subjectSOCIAL POLICY
dc.subjectSOCIAL PROGRAMS
dc.subjectSUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectTARGETING
dc.subjectTRANSFER PROGRAMS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYED
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT BENEFITS
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT RATE
dc.subjectWAGES
dc.subjectYOUNG WORKERS
dc.titleKnowing, When You Do Not Know : Simulating the Poverty and Distributional Impacts of an Economic Crisis

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