Climate Change Impacts on the Intensive and Extensive Margins of US Agricultural Land
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How does current weather and climate change impact cropland use and allocation? Using 2010 ARMS data on several thousand central US farms, we estimate a two-step model that controls for expected relative prices, local soil characteristics, and self-selection into primary crop. We find that: (i). early-season and late-season temperatures and rainfall are most significant for selection into corn, while mid-season weather impacts soybean selection; (ii). sensitivity to nonlinear weather effects varies substantially within season and across crops; (iii). soil characteristics are important and should be accounted for in climate studies; and (iv). crop switching may occur under mild climate change.