Aspirations and the role of social protection: Evidence from a natural disaster in rural Pakistan

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dc.creatorKosec, Katrina
dc.creatorMo, Cecilia Hyunjung
dc.date2015-10-08
dc.date2024-08-01T02:55:05Z
dc.date2024-08-01T02:55:05Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:43:18Z
dc.descriptionCitizens’ aspirations for the future are politically important; they are linked to welfare and whether citizens engage in forward-looking political and economic behavior. How do natural disasters affect aspirations, and can governments’ social protection policies successfully mitigate any damaging effects? If natural disasters threaten aspirations, there is strong policy interest in understanding these threats and what government can do to protect aspirations. This article uses Pakistan’s 2010 floods to identify the effects of a natural disaster on citizens’ aspirations. Aspirations were significantly reduced—especially among the poorest and most vulnerable. However, by exploiting exogenous variation in access to targeted government social protection, the authors show that social protection following natural disasters can significantly reduce their negative aspirational effects. This offers a new understanding of government social protection. It not only raises social welfare in the short term by restoring livelihoods and replacing damaged assets; it also has an enduring effect by raising citizens’ aspirations for the future. The authors show not only that the aspirations of citizens matter for citizens’ behaviors, but also that government policies can effectively protect and increase those aspirations. This implies that the value and efficacy of government disaster relief programs are underestimated when aspirations are not taken into account.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/151061
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/112754
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/150570
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/150032
dc.relationhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/150935
dc.relationhttps://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2017.03.039
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceKosec, Katrina; and Mo, Cecilia Hyunjung. 2015. Aspirations and the role of social protection: Evidence from a natural disaster in rural Pakistan. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1467. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/151061
dc.subjectnatural disasters
dc.subjectsocial protection
dc.subjectdemand
dc.subjectsocial welfare
dc.titleAspirations and the role of social protection: Evidence from a natural disaster in rural Pakistan
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)