The World Bank Group in Ethiopia, Fiscal Years 2013– 23: Country Program Evaluation

World Bank

The World Bank Group in Ethiopia, Fiscal Years 2013– 23: Country Program Evaluation

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Washington, DC: World Bank

Descripción

This Country Program Evaluation reviews the World Bank Group’s engagement in Ethiopia during FY2013–FY2023 across three distinct periods: rapid growth with rising macroeconomic imbalances and political unrest (FY13–FY18); government-led openings to economic reform (FY19–FY20); and conflict and crisis that disrupted reform momentum (FY21–FY23). The evaluation finds a resilient country program that achieved important outcomes in climate resilience, agricultural productivity, and sustainable land management, while adapting instruments and partnerships to shifting risks. Alignment with government evolved—from divergent diagnoses of macroeconomic challenges in the first period, to greater convergence on private sector and macroeconomic policy reforms in the second, and to risk mitigation amid conflict. The Bank Group adopted pragmatic collaboration on mutually agreeable areas and rapidly supported reform openings, including private sector initiatives, but some transformative reforms did not materialize. Efforts to operate through third-party implementation in Tigray faced effectiveness constraints, and risk engagement was weaker in transformational areas lacking consensus. The following lessons were identified: (i) The World Bank’s engagement in Ethiopia sometimes prioritized maintaining dialogue over openly advocating for sensitive but transformative reforms, limiting public discussion and visibility of key economic analyses; going forward, it should better balance discreet negotiations with transparent policy discourse and proactive risk management to advance critical reforms and achieve lasting impact. (ii) Conducting regular strategy and program reviews and actively managing risks can create opportunities for strategic corrections and adaptation, particularly during times of portfolio expansion and emerging economic challenges and conflict. (iii) Adapting Bank Group programs to evolving conflict and fragility requires candid, risk-informed assessments and robust, timely monitoring and evaluation—beyond limited third party mechanisms—to ensure support remains aligned with reaching the most vulnerable populations. (iv) The Bank Group should align its financing instruments and operations with countries’ macroeconomic realities—such as exchange rate misalignment, financial repression, and debt sustainability—by candidly assessing risks and sequencing reforms so programs (including DPOs and PforRs) remain consistent, sustainable, and not undermined by unresolved imbalances.