Implications of the Doha Market Access Proposals for Developing Countries
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This paper uses detailed data on bound
and applied tariffs to assess the consequences of the World
Trade Organization s December 2008 Modalities for tariffs
levied and faced by developing countries, and the welfare
implications of these reforms. The authors find that the
tiered formula for agriculture would halve tariffs in
industrial countries and lower them more modestly in
developing countries. In non-agriculture, the formulas would
reduce the tariff peaks facing developing countries and cut
average industrial country tariffs by more than a third. The
authors use a political-economy framework to assess the
implications of flexibilities for the size of the tariff
cuts and find they are likely to substantially reduce the
outcome. However, despite the flexibilities, there are
likely to be worthwhile gains, with applied tariffs facing
developing countries cut by about 20 percent in agriculture
and 27 percent in non-agriculture, and sizeable cuts in
tariffs facing industrial countries. The welfare impacts of
reform are evaluated using a new approach to aggregation
that improves on the traditional, flawed approach of
weighted-average tariffs. This substantially increases the
estimated benefits of an agreement along the lines of these
modalities, with estimated global income gains of up to $160
billion per year from market access reform.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL DOMESTIC SUPPORT, AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS, AGRICULTURAL EXPORTERS, AGRICULTURAL GOODS, AGRICULTURAL MARKET, AGRICULTURAL MARKET ACCESS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL TARIFF, AGRICULTURAL TARIFFS, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, AGRICULTURE, AVERAGE TARIFF, AVERAGE TARIFF LEVELS, AVERAGE TARIFFS, BANANAS, BANK POLICY, BENEFITS OF TRADE, COMMERCIAL POLICY, COMMODITIES, COTTON, CUTTING, DEVELOPED COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION, DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, ECONOMIC POLICY, ECONOMIC WELFARE, ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION, EQUILIBRIUM, EX ANTE ASSESSMENT, EXPENDITURE, EXPENDITURES, EXPORT, EXPORT COMPETITION, EXPORTS, FREE MARKET ACCESS, FULL LIBERALIZATION, GLOBAL TRADE, GOVERNMENT PREFERENCE, GRACE PERIOD, HIGH TARIFFS, IMPORT DUTIES, IMPORT PRICES, IMPORT QUANTITIES, IMPORT VOLUMES, IMPORTS, INFORMATION ASYMMETRY, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, INTERNATIONAL LAW, MARKET ACCESS, MARKET ACCESS OPPORTUNITIES, MERCHANDISE TRADE, NON-TARIFF BARRIERS, OPEN TRADE, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT, PRICE OF IMPORTS, PROCESS OF NEGOTIATIONS, PROTECTION FOR SALE, QUOTA RENTS, RATE QUOTAS, REAL INCOME, REDUCTION IN TARIFFS, REDUCTIONS IN TARIFFS, SPECIAL PROVISIONS, SPECIAL SAFEGUARD, SUGAR, TARIFF BARRIER, TARIFF BARRIERS, TARIFF BINDINGS, TARIFF ESCALATION, TARIFF LINES, TARIFF RATE, TARIFF RATE QUOTAS, TARIFF RATES, TARIFF REDUCTION, TARIFF REDUCTIONS, TARIFF REFORM, TARIFF REVENUES, TARIFF STRUCTURE, TRADE DISTORTIONS, TRADE FACILITATION, TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, TRADE POLICY, TRADE REFORM, TRADE REFORMS, TRADING, TRADING PARTNERS, TRANSITION ECONOMIES, TRUST FUND, UNIFORM TARIFFS, VALUE OF TRADE, VOLUME, WELFARE GAINS, WELFARE IMPACTS, WORLD PRICES, WORLD TRADE, WORLD TRADE ORGANIZATION, ZERO TARIFFS