Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change

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dc.creatorOvalle Rivera, Oriana
dc.creatorLäderach, Peter R.D.
dc.creatorBunn, Christian
dc.creatorObersteiner, Michael
dc.creatorSchroth, Götz
dc.date2015-04-14
dc.date2015-04-30T14:32:59Z
dc.date2015-04-30T14:32:59Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T14:38:19Z
dc.descriptionRegional studies have shown that climate change will affect climatic suitability for Arabica coffee (Coffea arabica) within current regions of production. Increases in temperature and changes in precipitation patterns will decrease yield, reduce quality and increase pest and disease pressure. This is the first global study on the impact of climate change on suitability to grow Arabica coffee. We modeled the global distribution of Arabica coffee under changes in climatic suitability by 2050s as projected by 21 global circulation models. The results suggest decreased areas suitable for Arabica coffee in Mesoamerica at lower altitudes. In South America close to the equator higher elevations could benefit, but higher latitudes lose suitability. Coffee regions in Ethiopia and Kenya are projected to become more suitable but those in India and Vietnam to become less suitable. Globally, we predict decreases in climatic suitability at lower altitudes and high latitudes, which may shift production among the major regions that produce Arabica coffee.
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/65365
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/84024
dc.languageen
dc.publisherPublic Library of Science
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceOvalle Rivera, Oriana; Läderach, Peter; Bunn, Christian; Obersteiner, Michael; Schroth, Götz. 2015. Projected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change. PLoS One 10(4):e0124155.
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectcoffea arabica
dc.subjectadaptation
dc.subjectcoffea canephora
dc.subjectcambio climatico
dc.subjectadaptación
dc.titleProjected shifts in Coffea arabica suitability among major global producing regions due to climate change
dc.typeJournal Article

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Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT)