Cuantificación e interpolación de tendencias locales de temperatura y precipitación en zonas alto andinas de Cundinamarca y Boyacá (Colombia)
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Corporación Colombiana de Investigación Agropecuaria
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Change in global weather patterns affects not only temperature, but also the hydrological cycle with greater variations in local environments. In order to quantify trends in maximum temperature and minimum and average precipitation, we performed a nonparametric analysis of time series of 31 meteorological stations located in the high Andes of Cundinamarca and boyaca, with records from 1985 to 2008. We calculated the changing trends of climatic variables for each of the stations with the sen slope estimator and we used the mann-Kendall test to determine the confidence level of such trends. The maximum temperature showed positive trends with significant confidence levels (> 90%) in most seasons. For the lowest temperature, the positive trend was detected in fewer stations but with higher levels of statistical confidence (12 stations exceeded 95%). Rainfall showed significant trends (> 90%) in only seven of the 31 stations analyzed (six of them were positive and one negative). We used the method of inverse distance weighted interpolation (IDW) to generate maps of the spatial distribution of the trends. Cross validation found that IDW has a better fit for precipitation than for temperature. We conclude that climate change manifests very local expressions in terms of the behavior of temperatures and precipitation for the study area, which could lead to specific impacts on production systems in the region.
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