Liberalizing Trade, and Its Impact on Poverty and Inequality in Nicaragua
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The Doha round of multilateral trade
negotiations stalled in 2008 owing in no small degree to a
lack of agreement on the terms of substantially reducing
trade-distorting support for agricultural products and to
what extent this will be beneficial to developing countries.
Nicaragua presents an interesting case in point, being one
of the poorest economies in Latin America with still a
relatively large agricultural sector and high degrees of
rural poverty. In 2005, the country signed a free trade
agreement with the United States. This chapter provides a
quantitative analysis addressing that question. It does so
using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model for
Nicaragua coupled with a micro-simulation methodology. The
first section provides background information on trade
reform policies and macroeconomic trends in Nicaragua, with
special reference to the agricultural sector and rural
poverty. The section that follows describes the main
features of the CGE model and the micro-simulation
methodology used to assess the impact on poverty and
inequality. The author then lay out the model scenarios
considered, which include liberalizations of agricultural
and all merchandise goods trade by the rest of the world and
by Nicaragua itself. That is followed by a summary analysis
of results. This analysis includes tests for the sensitivity
of the results with respect to assumptions regarding the
responsiveness of trade to price liberalization, as
identified through the relevant trade elasticities. The
final section provides conclusions and possible policy implications.
Palabras clave
AGGREGATE IMPORTS, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL INCENTIVES, AGRICULTURAL INCOMES, AGRICULTURAL MARKETS, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTS, AGRICULTURAL SUPPORT, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, AGRICULTURE, APPAREL, AVERAGE TARIFF, BASE YEAR, BILATERAL AGREEMENTS, BILATERAL TRADE, CAPITAL FLOWS, CAPITAL GOOD, CAPITAL GOODS, CAPITAL INFLOWS, CAPITAL MARKET, CAPITAL STOCK, CAPITAL STOCKS, CD, CENTRAL BANK, CIVIL WAR, COMMODITIES, COMMODITY, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICES, COMMON MARKET, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CONSUMER PRICES, CONSUMERS, COUNTERFACTUAL SIMULATIONS, CURRENT ACCOUNT, CURRENT ACCOUNT BALANCE, CUSTOMS PROCEDURES, DEFLATORS, DEMAND FOR CAPITAL, DEMOGRAPHIC, DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGE, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ASSISTANCE, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DOMESTIC MARKET, DOMESTIC MARKETS, DOMESTIC PRICE, DOMESTIC PRICES, DOMESTIC PRODUCERS, DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ECONOMIC SECTORS, ECONOMIC WELFARE, ELASTICITY, ENDOGENOUS VARIABLES, EPZ, EQUILIBRIUM, EXCHANGE RATE, EXOGENOUS VARIABLES, EXPORT COMMODITY, EXPORT EARNINGS, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PRICE, EXPORT PRICES, EXPORT PROCESSING, EXPORT PROCESSING ZONE, EXPORT SUBSIDIES, EXPORT SUPPLY, EXPORT TAXES, EXPORTERS, EXPORTS, EXPOSURE, EXTERNAL TERMS OF TRADE, EXTREME POVERTY, FACTORS OF PRODUCTION, FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS, FISCAL DEFICIT, FIXED INVESTMENT, FOREIGN CURRENCY, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, FREE ACCESS, FREE TRADE, FREE TRADE AGREEMENT, GDP, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM, GENERAL EQUILIBRIUM ANALYSIS, GINI COEFFICIENT, GLOBAL COMPETITION, GLOBAL TRADE, GLOBAL TRADE ANALYSIS, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HUMAN CAPITAL, IMPACT OF TRADE, IMPACT OF TRADE LIBERALIZATION, IMPORT, IMPORT COMPETITION, IMPORT CONTENT, IMPORT DUTIES, IMPORT PRICES, IMPORT PROTECTION, IMPORT TARIFF, IMPORT TARIFFS, INCOME, INCOME LEVELS, INCOMES, INDEXATION, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTS, INVENTORY, LABOR MARKET, LABOR MARKET ADJUSTMENT, LABOR MARKET OUTCOMES, LABOR MARKET STRUCTURE, LABOR MARKETS, LIBERALIZATION OF TRADE, LIBERALIZATIONS, LIVING STANDARDS, LOCAL CURRENCY, MACROECONOMIC INSTABILITY, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MARGINAL PROPENSITY TO SAVE, MARKET ACCESS, MARKET CONDITIONS, MARKET PRICES, MARKET STRUCTURE, MARKET STRUCTURES, MONOPOLIES, MULTILATERAL TRADE, MULTILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, NET CAPITAL, OUTPUT, PER CAPITA INCOME, POPULATION AGEING, POVERTY REDUCTION, PREFERENTIAL ACCESS, PREFERENTIAL MARKET ACCESS, PRICE DISTORTIONS, PRICE LIBERALIZATION, PRICE SUPPORT, PRIMARY GOODS, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, PRIVATE SAVINGS, PRODUCTION COSTS, PRODUCTIVITY, PRODUCTIVITY GROWTH, PROFIT MAXIMIZATION, PROTECTION DATA, PROTECTION STRUCTURE, PUBLIC UTILITY, QUANTITATIVE RESTRICTIONS, QUOTAS, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, REAL GDP, REAL WAGE GROWTH, REGIONAL TRADE, RULES OF ORIGIN, RURAL INFRASTRUCTURE, SAFEGUARD MEASURES, SAVINGS, SKILLED WORKERS, TARIFF RATE, TARIFF RATES, TARIFF REDUCTION, TARIFF REDUCTIONS, TARIFF REVENUES, TARIFFS ON IMPORTS, TAX, TAX RATE, TAX RATES, TAXATION, TERMS OF TRADE, TOTAL EXPORTS, TOTAL FACTOR PRODUCTIVITY, TRADE BALANCE, TRADE BARRIERS, TRADE DEFICIT, TRADE EFFECTS, TRADE FLOWS, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE MODELS, TRADE NEGOTIATIONS, TRADE OPENING, TRADE OPENNESS, TRADE POLICIES, TRADE POLICY, TRADE PREFERENCES, TRADE PROTECTION, TRADE REFORM, TRADE SHOCK, TRADE SHOCKS, TRADE STRUCTURE, TRADE TAX, TRADE TAXES, TRADING PARTNER, TRADING PARTNERS, UNEMPLOYMENT, UNEMPLOYMENT RATE, UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, UNILATERAL LIBERALIZATION, UNILATERAL TRADE, UNILATERAL TRADE LIBERALIZATION, UNSKILLED WORKERS, VALUE ADDED, VALUE OF EXPORTS, VALUE OF IMPORTS, VOLATILITY, WAGE GROWTH, WAGES, WELFARE GAINS, WORLD DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS, WORLD MARKET, WORLD MARKETS, WORLD PRICES, WORLD TRADE, WTO