Analysis of the Soybean-to-Corn Price Ratio and its Impact on Farmers' Planting Decision-Making in Indiana
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In Indiana agricultural land is used mostly for corn and soybean harvesting. Rotated corn is a common practice, but in recent years, essentially due to the "ethanol boom" and increased profitability of corn production, many farmers have switched to continuous corn. Corn price increase affects the soybean-to-corn (STC) ratio, however, it is hypothesized that over time market effects will be felt, and return the ratio to its stable range. The threshold autoregressive model is used to analyze the monthly time series of STC ratio in Indiana. Results suggest that exogenous shocks will not have permanent effect on the STC price ratio, but will require, however, a reasonably long time to die out.