Efficacy and adoption of strategies for avian flu control in developing countries: A Delphi study

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dc.creatorBirol, Ekin
dc.creatorAsare-Marfo, Dorene
dc.creatorYakhshilikov, Yorbol
dc.date2010
dc.date2024-10-01T14:00:47Z
dc.date2024-10-01T14:00:47Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:06:15Z
dc.descriptionIn this paper, we present the results of a two-stage expert elicitation (Delphi) study conducted to provide input to contingent valuation (CV) studies. These CV studies are designed to estimate the benefits of various public and private strategies for the control of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) across the study countries of Ethiopia, Ghana, Indonesia, Kenya, and Nigeria. The results of these CV studies are expected to feed into the cost-benefit and cost-effectiveness analyzes, which will be conducted to identify the effective HPAI control strategies in each study country. The information gathered through the Delphi study included (1) definitions of the small-scale producers (noncommercial/semicommercial and commercial) across the study countries, (2) estimations of the efficacy of various private and public control strategies in HPAI control, and (3) estimates of the proportion of poultry producers who are expected to adopt these control strategies under different scenarios. In this Delphi study, we collected data from 23 experts and analyzed the data by using statistical analysis methods. The results reveal that small-scale flocks are significantly larger in Indonesia, compared to the four African countries. The efficacy levels of both private and public HPAI control strategies investigated are significantly higher for commercial producers than for their noncommercial/semicommercial counterparts. Across private strategies and study countries, regular monitoring is thought to have the highest efficacy for those in the noncommercial/semicommercial sector, whereas regular disinfection and containment in hard material (as a combined strategy) was found to be the most effective strategy in minimizing risk in the commercial sector. Across public strategies and study countries, experts see surveillance by veterinary services as the most effective public sector HPAI control strategy in both the noncommercial/semicommercial and commercial sectors. Finally, according to the experts, small-scale poultry producers' likelihood of adoption is low overall, although adoption rates are higher for commercial producers than for noncommercial/semicommercial producers.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/154314
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/94630
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceBirol, Ekin; Asare-Marfo, Dorene; Yakhshilikov, Yorbol. 2010. Efficacy and adoption of strategies for avian flu control in developing countries: A Delphi study. IFPRI Discussion Paper 1023. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/154314
dc.subjecteconomic sectors
dc.subjectefficiency
dc.subjecthighly pathogenic avian influenza
dc.subjectdisease control
dc.subjectsmallholders
dc.titleEfficacy and adoption of strategies for avian flu control in developing countries: A Delphi study
dc.typeWorking Paper

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