River Salinity and Climate Change : Evidence from Coastal Bangladesh
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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In a changing climate, saltwater
intrusion is expected to worsen in low-lying coastal areas
around the world. Understanding the physical and economic
effects of salinity ingress, and planning adaptation, are
key to the long-term development of countries for which sea
level rise has been identified as a major risk from climate
change. This paper presents a study conducted in Bangladesh,
which quantifies the prospective relationship between
climate-induced changes in sea level, temperature, rainfall,
and altered riverine flows from the Himalayas, and the
spread and intensity of salinization on river water in the
coastal zone for 2050. The research takes into account the
projected land subsidence of the Ganges Delta, as well as
alternative scenarios of upstream withdrawal of freshwater.
The findings indicate that climate change will cause
significant changes in river salinity in the southwest
coastal area of Bangladesh by 2050. These changes are likely
to lead to significant shortages of drinking water in the
coastal urban areas, scarcity of water for irrigation for
dry-season agriculture, and significant changes in the
coastal aquatic ecosystems. Changes in the availability of
freshwater fish will likely affect the composition of
capture fishery, although the increase in brackish water
will enhance opportunities for brackish water aquaculture.
Assessment of location-specific economic impacts of the
changes in river salinity, identification of suitable
adaptation alternatives, and costing of adaptation are high
priorities for further analysis.
Palabras clave
ACCRETION, AGGRADATION, AGRICULTURAL DEVELOPMENT, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY, AGRICULTURE, AMPHIBIAN SPECIES, AQUACULTURE, AQUATIC ECOSYSTEMS, AQUIFERS, BASINS, BAY, BEACHES, BIODIVERSITY, BIRDS, BRACKISH WATER, CALCIUM, CALIBRATION, CASE STUDIES, CATCHMENT, CATCHMENTS, CHANNEL, CHANNEL NETWORK, CHANNELS, CLASSIFICATION, CLAY, CLIMATE, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGES, COAST, COASTAL AREAS, COASTAL ECOSYSTEMS, COASTAL REGION, COASTAL WATER, COASTAL WATERS, COASTAL ZONE, COASTAL ZONE MANAGEMENT, COASTAL ZONES, CONSTRUCTION, COVERING, CURRENTS, DELTAS, DISCHARGE, DOMESTIC USE, DRAINAGE, DRINKING WATER, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECOSYSTEM, ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH, ENVIRONMENTAL STABILITY, ESTUARIES, EVAPORATION, EXPORT, FARMING, FARMS, FIELD MEASUREMENTS, FISH, FISH SPECIES, FISHERIES, FISHERY, FISHING, FLOODING, FLOODS, FLOW REGIMES, FOREST, FORESTS, FRESH GROUNDWATER, FRESHWATER, FRESHWATER HABITATS, FRESHWATER INFLOWS, GEOGRAPHIC INFORMATION, GLACIERS, GROUNDWATER, GROUNDWATER RESOURCES, GROUNDWATER SOURCES, HIGH TIDE, HIGH TIDES, HIGH WATER, HOUSING, HUMAN ACTIVITIES, HYDROLOGY, ICE, INTAKES, IRRIGATION, LAND AREA, LAND SUBSIDENCE, LAND USE, LEAKAGE, MANGROVE, MANGROVES, METEOROLOGY, MINERALS, NATIONAL WATER MANAGEMENT PLAN, NATURAL RESOURCES, OPEN ACCESS, PARTNERSHIP, PEAT, PERCOLATION, PLANT SPECIES, POLLUTION, PRECIPITATION, PUBLIC HEALTH, PUBLIC WORKS, PUMPS, RAIN, RAINFALL, RAINFALL EVENTS, RANGES, RIPARIAN, RIVER, RIVER SYSTEMS, RIVERINE, RIVERS, ROUTE, RUNOFF, RURAL DEVELOPMENT, SALINE INTRUSION, SALINE WATER, SALINITY, SALTWATER INTRUSION, SAND, SCARCITY OF WATER, SCIENCES, SEA, SEA LEVEL RISE, SEDIMENT, SEDIMENT LOADING, SEDIMENTS, SNOW, SOIL, SOIL MOISTURE, SOILS, SPAWNING GROUNDS, SPECIES, SPRING, STREAM, STUDY AREA, SUPPLY OF WATER, SURFACE WATER, SURFACE WATER DRAINAGE, SURFACE WATER RUNOFF, TOPOGRAPHY, WATER ABSTRACTION, WATER DRAINAGE, WATER EXTRACTION, WATER FLOWS, WATER INTAKE, WATER LEVEL, WATER LEVELS, WATER MANAGEMENT, WATER QUALITY, WATER RESOURCE, WATER RESOURCES, WATER RESOURCES PLANNING, WATER SECTOR, WATER SUPPLY, WATER TOWERS, WATER WITHDRAWAL, WATERSHEDS, WAVES, WETLANDS, WILDLIFE, WILDLIFE HABITAT