El Niño Southern Oscillation and Primary Agricultural Commodity Prices: Causal Inferences from Smooth Transition Models
| dc.creator | Ubilava, David | |
| dc.date | 2017-04-01T16:57:03Z | |
| dc.date.accessioned | 2026-07-09T07:14:14Z | |
| dc.description | Global climate anomalies affect world economies and primary commodity prices. One of the more pronounced climate anomalies is El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO). In this study I examine the relationship between ENSO and world commodity prices using monthly time series of the sea-surface temperature anomalies in the Nino 3.4 region, and real prices of thirty primary agricultural commodities. I apply smooth transition auoregressive (STAR) modelling techniques to assess causal inferences that could potentially be camouflaged in the linear setting. I illustrate dynamics of ENSO and commodity price behavior using generalized impulse-response functions. | |
| dc.identifier | doi:10.22004/ag.econ.152202 | |
| dc.identifier | https://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/152202/files/SP%20Ubilava.pdf | |
| dc.identifier | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/152202 | |
| dc.identifier.uri | http://hdl.handle.net/123456789/586022 | |
| dc.language | eng | |
| dc.publisher | ||
| dc.source | http://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/152202 | |
| dc.title | El Niño Southern Oscillation and Primary Agricultural Commodity Prices: Causal Inferences from Smooth Transition Models | |
| dc.type | Text |