Welfare Reform’s Effect on State Public Welfare Budget Shares
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This article examines the effect of the Personal Responsibility and Work Opportunity Reconciliation Act of
1996 on state budget shares for public welfare programs between 1991 and 2011. The model is a composite of prior
research. In particular, I utilize a balance wheel model adjusted to model budget shares. This model shares many
similarities with prior political economy model. Welfare Reform ended many traditional welfare programs and
created new ones with more restrictions on recipients. Prior research shows that expenditures have fallen for
traditional programs, but little is concluded about new programs and overall expenditures on public welfare
programs as they relate to the total budget. The findings of this research are largely inconclusive, but more data and
stronger tests could confirm or reject the null hypotheses with more robustness.