Correlates of Success in World Bank Development Policy Lending
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World Bank Group, Washington, DC
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This paper examines the correlates of
success of development policy lending operations of the
World Bank between 2004 and 2012. The paper uses a data set
constructed of individual loan characteristics and ex-post
loan ratings produced by the World Bank's Independent
Evaluation Group. Departing from the related literature, the
paper focuses mostly on examining the impact of loan
characteristics, reform program design features, and task
team leader skills, among other variables, on intended
development results, while still controlling for country
characteristics. It finds that a variable used to reflect
congruence or "line of sight" between the policy
reforms supported and the results framework is a critical
ingredient for success. Task team leader skills in general,
and task team leadership by staff affiliated with the former
"Economic Policy" department of the World Bank,
also increase the chance of success. Conversely, a weaker
set of supported reforms in these operations tends to reduce
the chance of success. Reforms supported in the energy
sector seem to reduce the likelihood of success, perhaps
because of the inherent political difficulties of
implementing reforms in this sector. The paper also draws
important policy and institutional implications from these
and other findings.
Palabras clave
ACCOUNTING, ADJUSTMENT, AGRICULTURE, BANK POLICY, CHECKS, COMMITMENT, COMMITMENTS, CONCESSIONAL TERMS, CORRUPTION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPMENT ECONOMICS, DEVELOPMENT FINANCING, DEVELOPMENT POLICY, DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES, DUMMY VARIABLE, DUMMY VARIABLES, ECONOMETRIC MODELS, ECONOMIC PERFORMANCE, ECONOMIC POLICIES, ECONOMIC RESEARCH, EMERGING ECONOMIES, EXCHANGE RATE, EXPENDITURE, FINANCE MANAGEMENT, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, FISCAL DISCIPLINE, FOREIGN AID, FOREIGN ASSISTANCE, GDP, GDP PER CAPITA, GROWTH POLICIES, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IDA CREDITS, INDIVIDUAL LOAN, INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENTS, INSTRUMENT, INTERNAL AUDITS, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPMENT, INVESTMENT LOANS, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, JUSTICE, LEADERSHIP, LENDING INSTRUMENT, LENDING OPERATIONS, LOAN, LOAN SIZE, MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS, MACROECONOMIC MANAGEMENT, MACROECONOMIC POLICIES, MACROECONOMIC POLICY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, MACROECONOMIC VARIABLES, MACROECONOMICS, MULTILATERAL DEVELOPMENT BANKS, NATURAL DISASTERS, PATRONAGE, POLITICAL ECONOMY, PORTFOLIO, POSITIVE COEFFICIENT, PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT, PUBLIC FINANCE, REGIONAL DUMMIES, REGRESSION ANALYSIS, RETURN, RISK AVERSION, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT, STRUCTURAL ADJUSTMENT LOANS, TAX, TRADE POLICIES, TRANSPORT, URBAN DEVELOPMENT, WORLD BANK FINANCING, WORLD BANK LENDING, WORLD BANK LOANS