External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Hernandez, Alvaro Espinoza

External and internal migration propensity index (MPI) for Honduras: Out-of-sample validation

Autores

Ceballos, Francisco

Hernandez, Manuel A.

Hernandez, Alvaro Espinoza

Editor

International Food Policy Research Institute

Descripción

The e-MPI and the i-MPI are tools to objectively estimate the probability that individuals from a given household will, respectively, migrate abroad or migrate domestically in the near future. We use new longitudinal data to test their effectiveness fully out of sample. We find good predictive power of each of these indices in terms of the respective type of migration they attempt to anticipate. Moreover, they perform well against alternative measures, work reasonably well for both rural and urban areas and in departments not included in the original calibration data, and appear to capture distinct aspects around households’ decisions to migrate domestically and abroad. Overall, the MPI seems to be an important addition to policymakers’ toolkit.