Do Changing Probabilities or Payoffs in Lottery-Choice Experiments Affect Risk Preference Outcomes? Evidence from Rural Uganda
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This study compares risk preferences elicited from two different methods and the resulting
inconsistency rates in response behavior. We also identify and compare how demographic and
socioeconomic characteristics influence risk preferences elicited from the two methods. We use
experimental and survey data collected from 332 randomly selected smallholder coffee farmers
in Uganda. We find relatively low inconsistency rates in the response behavior and that both
methods classify most farmers as risk averse. However, a closer inspection reveals significantly
different risk results. Specific demographic and socioeconomic characteristics affect farmers’ risk
preferences but are not stable across elicitation methods.