Assessing the Future Development of the Macedonian Agriculture: Partial equilibrium model of livestock-feed sector
No hay miniatura disponible
Fecha
Título de la revista
ISSN de la revista
Título del volumen
Editor
Resumen
Descripción
The country is facing one of the biggest challenges since its independence – the process
of the EU accession. Taking into consideration that „forecasting important economic
events is source of power“ (Howitt, 2005), the aim of this paper is to develop a model in
order to assess the impact of the EU membership on the Macedonian agriculture.
The model is recursive, dynamic, multi-product partial equilibrium model for the meat,
dairy and cereals sector in the Republic of Macedonia. It follows the AGMEMOD
principles, hence comprising the local features of the Macedonian agriculture.
The baseline scenario shows a positive growth of the pig meat, lamb meat and cow milk
sectors. On the other hand, in the EU scenarios the most positive effect is expected in the
extensive sectors, e.g the sheep and beef productions. The grains show modest growth on
the supply side, but the projections on the net-trade demonstrate further deficit increase.
The biggest gain in the EU scenarios comes from the higher level of prices, but also from
the higher budgetary support. Compared with the experiences of the previous
enlargements, the model confirms the expectations about the development of the selected
sectors after the EU accession.