Impacts of Weather Variability and Climate Change on Agricultural Revenues in Central Asia
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The study evaluates the impact of weather variability on agricultural revenues in the
four Central Asian countries using a panel data at the province level for the period of
1990-2010. The net average effects of weather variability are estimated to be less than
1% of total crop production revenues, with variations among the provinces in the
region. This result is robust to numerous specification checks. It is believed that the
main reason for such relatively low levels of impacts, in addition to good weather
years, is evolving adaptive capacities and coping actions by farmers in the region. In
most of Central Asia, important year-to-year weather variations are the norm rather
than an exception. As a key conclusion, agricultural producers operating in such
inherently stressed environments may have more experience to dynamically adapt to
erratic and changing environment.