Climate change impacts on agriculture and adaptation options for Uzbekistan

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dc.creatorMirkasimov, Bakhrom
dc.creatorParpiev, Ziyodullo
dc.creatorWolfson, Inna
dc.date2026-06-11
dc.date2026-06-12T13:41:49Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-06-27T15:44:46Z
dc.descriptionClimate change is likely to reshape agriculture in an irrigated, water-scarce transition economy like Uzbekistan. We use IFPRI's International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) model and evaluate the direct effects of climate change on Uzbekistan’s agriculture through 2050. We assume changes in GDP, population, and technological progress to be exogenous. We find that climate change and the corresponding temperature increase will have significant adverse effects on the long-term yields of cotton and wheat through changes in water availability, precipitation patterns, crop yields, and the use of land, water, and other natural resources, but harvested area responses may differ. All climate change scenarios are similar in predicting an increase in harvested area for temperate fruits and vegetables, but their yield gains remain conditional on market prices, policy reform, water use and institutional constraints. For policymakers, this makes climate change adaptation actions an opportunity for incentives and structural reforms as well as for technology to adapt to changing environmental conditions and to ensure food security.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10568/183323
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/113430
dc.languageen
dc.publisherInternational Food Policy Research Institute
dc.rightsOpen Access
dc.sourceMirkasimov, Bakhrom; Parpiev, Ziyodullo; and Wolfson, Inna. 2026. Climate change impacts on agriculture and adaptation options for Uzbekistan. Central Asia Working Paper 8. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/183323
dc.subjectclimate change
dc.subjectclimate change adaptation
dc.subjectmathematical models
dc.subjectclimate change impacts
dc.subjectmodelling
dc.titleClimate change impacts on agriculture and adaptation options for Uzbekistan
dc.typeWorking Paper

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Instituto Internacional de Investigación sobre Políticas Alimentarias (IFPRI)