Market information and smallholder farmer price expectations
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Price expectation plays an indispensable role in production, marketing and the agricultural technology adoption decisions of farmers. Using household survey data, this paper analyses the price expectations of farmers growing cereals and horse beans in Ethiopia. Our findings show that current and past output prices in local markets, central wholesale prices and seasonal rainfall are strongly correlated with smallholders’ price expectations. Reliable information on these variables assists farmers to form better price expectations, thereby improving their production decisions. This supports the recent developments in using information and communication technologies (ICTs) and market information systems (MIS) to convey market and weather information to farmers.