Oil Spills on Other Commodities
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper examines the effect of crude
oil prices on the prices of 35 internationally traded
primary commodities for the 1960-2005 period. It finds that
the pass-through of crude oil price changes to the overall
non-energy commodity index is 0.16. At a more disaggregated
level, the fertilizer index had the highest pass-through
(0.33), followed by agriculture (0.17), and metals (0.11).
The prices of precious metals also exhibited a strong
response to the crude oil price. In terms of individual
commodities, the estimates of the food group exhibited
remarkable similarity while those of raw materials and
metals gave a mixed picture. The implication is that if
crude oil prices remain high for some time, as most analysts
expect, then the recent commodity price boom is likely to
last much longer than earlier booms, at least for food
commodities. The other commodities, however, are likely to
follow diverging paths. On the methodological side, the
results show that price indices, while providing useful
summary statistics, need to be supplemented by individual
commodity analysis.
Palabras clave
AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITY, AUCTIONS, AVERAGE PRICE, BARTER, BORROWING COUNTRIES, COAL, COMMODITY, COMMODITY AGREEMENTS, COMMODITY BOOM, COMMODITY BOOMS, COMMODITY EXCHANGE, COMMODITY INDEX, COMMODITY MARKET, COMMODITY MARKETS, COMMODITY PRICE, COMMODITY PRICE INDEX, COMMODITY PRICE INDICES, COMMODITY PRICES, CORPORATE FINANCE, CRUDE OIL, CRUDE OIL PRICE, DATA MINING, DEBT, DEMAND FUNCTION, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPMENT FINANCE, DISPOSABLE INCOME, ECONOMIC ACTIVITY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, ELECTRICITY, EMERGING ECONOMIES, END-USERS, ENERGY COSTS, ENERGY OUTLOOK, ENERGY PRICES, ENERGY USE, EQUILIBRIUM PRICE, ETHANOL, ETHANOL PRODUCTION, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPENDITURES, FOOD COMMODITIES, FUEL, GAS PRICE, GLOBAL ECONOMY, GLOBAL ENERGY DEMAND, GLOBALIZATION, HYDROELECTRIC POWER, ICO, INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION, INFLATION, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, INTEREST RATES, INTERNATIONAL COMMODITY AGREEMENTS, MARGINAL COST, MARKET PRICE, MARKET SHARE, MIDDLE EASTERN, NATURAL GAS, NEW TECHNOLOGY, NITROGEN, NITROGEN FERTILIZER, OIL, OIL IMPORTING COUNTRIES, OIL PRICES, OIL PRODUCING, OIL PRODUCING COUNTRIES, OIL SPILLS, OILS, OUTPUT, PETROLEUM, PETROLEUM PRICES, PRICE BEHAVIOR, PRICE CHANGE, PRICE CHANGES, PRICE INCREASES, PRICE INDEX, PRICE INDICES, PRICE MOVEMENTS, PRICE OF OIL, PRICE SPIKES, PRIMARY COMMODITIES, PRIMARY COMMODITY, PRODUCTIVITY, RAW MATERIAL, RAW MATERIALS, RESULT, RESULTS, RSS, SALE, SETTLEMENT PRICE, SOURCE OF ENERGY, SOUTH AMERICAN, SOYBEAN MEAL, SOYBEAN OIL, SUBSTITUTE, SUBSTITUTES, SYNTHETIC RUBBER, TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE, TRADED COMMODITIES, USES, WEB, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD TRADE