Nigeria Development Update, December 2020
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This report highlights how the COVID-19
(coronavirus) crisis has impacted Nigeria’s economy. In
2020, Nigeria’s economy is expected to experience its
deepest recession since the 1980s due to the
COVID-19-related disruptions, notably lower oil prices and
remittances, enhanced risk aversion in global capital
markets, and mobility restrictions. In the baseline
scenario—which assumes further macroeconomic reforms and a
gradual recovery in oil prices—Nigeria’s gross domestic
product (GDP) is projected to contract by about 4 percent in
2020, growing modestly by 1.1 percent in 2021, and then
recovering gradually towards the estimated population growth
rate of 2.6 percent. With the rate of economic growth
remaining below the population growth rate, per-capita
incomes would continue declining and better full-time jobs
will be much harder to find. This edition of the Nigeria
Development Update takes stock of the recently implemented
reforms and proposes policy options to both mitigate the
impact of COVID-19 and foster a resilient, sustainable, and
inclusive recovery. Managing the current crisis while
strengthening the institutional and policy framework will
require carefully sequenced reforms implemented over the
immediate- and near-term. Robust mitigation and recovery
policies would be based on five pillars: 1. Managing the
domestic spread of COVID-19 until a vaccine is distributed;
2. Enhancing macroeconomic management to boost investor
confidence; 3. Safeguarding and mobilizing revenues; 4.
Reprioritizing public spending to protect critical
development expenditures; and 5. Supporting economic
activity and access to services and providing relief for
poor and vulnerable communities.
Palabras clave
ECONOMIC GROWTH, RECESSION, FOOD PRICES, EXTERNAL SECTOR, CORONAVIRUS, COVID-19, PANDEMIC IMPACT, FISCAL TRENDS, MONETARY POLICY, EXCHANGE RATE, ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, SOCIAL PROTECTION, HEALTH SYSTEM RESPONSE, EDUCATION, GENDER GAP, MIGRATION, YOUTH EMPLOYMENT