EL EFECTO DE LOS PAGOS DIRECTOS DE LOS PASES MIEMBROS DE LA ORGANIZACIN DE COOPERACIN Y DESARROLLO ECONMICOS (OCDE) EN LOS MERCADOS AGRCOLAS MUNDIALES. EVIDENCIA A PARTIR DE LOS MODELOS DE EQUILIBRIO GENERAL Y PARCIAL
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The effect of direct payments granted to OECD farmers on world agricultural markets is one of the controversial issues in the Doha Development Agenda. This paper aims at providing additional evidence on the range of effects that such payments may have under general and partial equilibrium assumptions. Simulations are run on a modified version of the model of the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP). Scenarios hypothesize the removal of decoupled payments only, and removal of all domestic support in OECD countries. They are run on a baseline referring to the year 2004. Results indicate that only few developing countries would gain substantially from the removal of decoupled payments and of domestic support in general; rather, a few major exporters may gain substantially, including some of the OECD countries themselves. The impact is sensitive to the modelling approach, and the partial equilibrium closure rule produces a higher impact than does general equilibrium. Results are compared t o those of other quantitative assessments, particularly the evidence recently provided by the COSIMO project, run jointly by the OECD and FAO.