Lao Economic Monitor, May 2016
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The Lao economy is estimated to have
expanded by around 7 percent in 2015, a slight moderation
from 7.5 percent in 2014. Similar to the last decade, the
resource sectors (hydropower and extractives) continued to
make an important contribution to growth. Power generation
got a boost from the commissioning of the first two blocks
of the 1,878 MW Hongsa lignite power plant and an additional
250-300 MW of installed capacity in the hydro sector.
Furthermore, despite lower global commodity prices, mining
output still increased as metal prices remained above the
mines’ cost recovery levels. The revised State Budget Law,
approved in December 2015, enhances the authority of the
National Assembly in budget oversight and Ministry of
Finance in budget management. In addition, with regards to
anti-money laundering and counter-terrorism financing, the
Government strengthened key regulations (including on
forfeiture of assets, border declaration, penalties for
non-compliant entities) recommended by the Financial Action
Task Force (FATF), which helped remove Lao PDR from the
FATF’s list of ‘jurisdictions not making sufficient
progress’. The outlook will depend on the progress in the
implementation of the recommendations and agreed measures.
GDP is expected to expand at around 7 percent per annum as a
healthy pipeline in the power sector keeps investments
strong and increases electricity production and exports by
almost 40 percent. Stabilization of growth rates in China
and some acceleration in Vietnam and Thailand should
increase demand for Lao PDR exports. On the other hand, some
gradual fiscal consolidation is expected, largely through
broadening the revenue base and efforts to improve
efficiency in spending and should help strengthen the
outlook for public debt sustainability and lower the risk of
debt distress from its current level of moderate, but
borderline to high.
Palabras clave
LIVING STANDARDS, TARIFFS, TERRORISM, DEFICIT, DEPOSIT, GOVERNMENT EXPENDITURES, OIL PRICE, NPL, EQUIPMENT, ACCOUNTING, DEPOSITS, BROAD MONEY, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, STOCK, INTEREST, PUBLIC INVESTMENTS, DEBT STOCK, BANKING SECTOR ASSET, EXCHANGE, GOVERNMENT REVENUES, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, DISCOUNT RATE, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, RESERVE REQUIREMENTS, DEBT MANAGEMENT, REPAYMENTS, REVENUES, PORTFOLIO, BONDS, LOAN, DISCOUNT, BORROWERS, TRADE SECTOR, TAX, PUBLIC BORROWING, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, RESERVE, CREDITORS, INFLATION, DEBT BURDEN, CREDITOR, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, SAFETY NETS, BANK LENDING, BUDGET, MATURITY, MACROECONOMIC STABILITY, TRADE BALANCE, OIL PRICES, INVESTMENT SPENDING, CURRENCY, COMMERCIAL BORROWING, ENFORCEMENT OF CONTRACTS, COMMERCIAL BANK, PORTFOLIOS, INCOME GROWTH, CONTRACTS, INFLATIONARY PRESSURES, FINANCES, FOREIGN CURRENCIES, BOND ISSUANCE, TRADING, OPTIONS, DEBT OUTSTANDING, INTEREST RATES, MONETARY FUND, MARKETS, DEBT, CAPITAL MARKET, INFLATIONARY PRESSURE, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, INFLATION RATE, SETTLEMENT, CREDITOR RIGHTS, LOANS, DIRECT INVESTMENT, RESERVES, DEBT SERVICE, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, MONETARY AUTHORITIES, FINANCE, FOREIGN CURRENCY, PUBLIC INVESTMENT, TAXES, BANKING SECTOR, FISCAL DEFICIT, EXPENDITURE, DEBT FINANCING, INTERNATIONAL STANDARDS, CREDIT EXPANSION, EQUITY, INVESTORS, COMMERCIAL BANK LENDING, ECONOMIC RISKS, HUMAN CAPITAL, INTEREST PAYMENTS, GOOD, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, FUTURE, FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT, RETURNS, FARMING HOUSEHOLDS, INVESTMENT PROJECTS, PRICE CHANGES, DISBURSEMENTS, EXPENDITURES, CREDIT INFORMATION, AMORTIZATION, ISSUANCE, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, POTENTIAL INVESTMENT, LOAN PORTFOLIO, MARKET, LOCAL CURRENCY, NON-PERFORMING LOAN, PUBLIC DEBT, BALANCE OF PAYMENT, SOLVENCY, INSURANCE, CURRENCIES, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT, INVESTOR, GOODS, BANK BRANCH, LENDING INTEREST RATES, INVESTMENT, BOND, COMMERCIAL BANKS, SHARE, LOAN PORTFOLIOS, INVESTMENT CLIMATE, PUBLIC FINANCES, POVERTY, LOAN SIZE, POLITICAL STABILITY, CAPITAL INFLOWS, BANK SUPERVISION, REVENUE, EXTERNAL DEBT, PROFIT, INVESTMENTS, LENDING, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, CREDIT GROWTH, BANKING SECTOR ASSETS, MATURITIES, EXCHANGE RATE, FISCAL DISCIPLINE, DEBT SERVICING, PUBLIC DEBT STOCK, PUBLIC SPENDING, COMMODITY PRICES, EQUITY STAKES, ARREARS, CAPITAL ACCOUNT, EXTERNAL BORROWING