Demand Growth versus Market Share Gains : Decomposing World Manufacturing Import Growth
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This paper decomposes manufacturing
import growth rates in a selected set of large industrial
and developing countries (five industrial and eight
developing) and measures the relative contributions of
domestic demand and market share changes for two separate
periods 1991/92 - 2001/02 and 2001/02 - 2007/08. It also
shows the shares of imports both from the rest of the world
and from developing countries for aggregate and three-digit
manufacturing sectors. Import growth is much higher during
the 2000s driven by higher demand growth rates. While market
share changes explain most of the growth during the 1990s,
its contribution is relatively smaller during the 2000s.
Imports from developing countries have grown much faster
both in industrial and developing country markets driven
primarily by market share changes. However, more than half
of market share gains by developing countries are caused by
the exports of China, which accounts for more than 70
percent of market share gains of developing countries in the
sample countries during the 2000s. Despite rapid growth,
developing countries' share in the gross absorption of
the sample countries is still low and can expand
substantially even if demand growth is much lower in the
near future.
Palabras clave
ABSOLUTE VALUE, ACCOUNTING, AGRICULTURAL TRADE, ANNUAL IMPORT, AVERAGE EXCHANGE RATES, COMMODITY, COMPARATIVE ADVANTAGE, COMPETITIVENESS, CONSTANT SHARE, CORRELATION COEFFICIENT, CORRELATION COEFFICIENTS, COUNTRY DUMMIES, DATA AVAILABILITY, DEMAND GROWTH, DEPRECIATION, DEPRECIATIONS, DEVELOPING COUNTRIES, DEVELOPING COUNTRY, DEVELOPING COUNTRY MARKETS, DEVELOPMENT BANK, DOLLAR VALUES, DOMESTIC DEMAND, DOMESTIC DEMAND GROWTH, DOMESTIC DEMANDS, DOMESTIC PRODUCTION, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS, ECONOMIC GROWTH, ECONOMIC INTEGRATION, ELASTICITY OF DEMAND, EMERGING MARKET, EMERGING MARKET COUNTRIES, EQUIPMENT, EXCHANGE RATES, EXPANSION OF EXPORTS, EXPORT DEPENDENCE, EXPORT DIVERSIFICATION, EXPORT DYNAMISM, EXPORT GROWTH, EXPORT PERFORMANCE, EXPORT SECTOR, EXPORT SHARES, EXPORT SUPPLY, EXPORTER, FINANCIAL CRISIS, FLUCTUATIONS IN TRADE, GLOBAL DEMAND, GLOBAL ECONOMIC PROSPECTS, GLOBAL TRADE, GLOBALIZATION, GROWTH RATE, GROWTH RATES, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, IMPORT, IMPORT GROWTH, IMPORT SHARE, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION, IMPORTS, INCOME, INCOME ELASTICITY, INDUSTRIAL COUNTRIES, INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY, INFLATION, INTERNATIONAL BANK, INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, INTERNATIONAL TRADE COMMISSION, LIBERALIZATION, LIBERALIZATION OF TRADE, LIBERALIZATIONS, LOCAL CURRENCIES, LOW-INCOME COUNTRIES, MARKET ACCESS, MARKET DEMAND, MARKET PENETRATION, MARKET SHARE, MARKET SHARES, OPEN ECONOMIES, OUTPUT, OUTPUT RATIO, OUTPUT RATIOS, OUTPUTS, PENETRATION RATES, PREFERENTIAL AGREEMENTS, PROTECTIONIST, RAPID EXPANSION, RAPID GROWTH, RATE OF GROWTH, REAL EXCHANGE RATES, REGIONAL TRADE, REGIONAL TRADE ARRANGEMENTS, REPUTATION, SUBSTITUTION, SUPPLIERS, TOTAL IMPORT, TOTAL IMPORTS, TRADE BARRIERS, TRADE DATA, TRADE EXPANSION, TRADE GROWTH, TRADE LIBERALIZATION, TRADE LIBERALIZATIONS, TRADE PATTERN, TRADE PATTERNS, TRADE REGIME, TRADE REGIMES, TRADE SHARES, TRADE SURPLUS, TRADE SURPLUSES, TRADING, WORLD DEMAND, WORLD ECONOMY, WORLD MARKET, WORLD MARKET SHARE, WORLD TRADE