Civil War Risk in Democratic and Non-Democratic Neighborhoods
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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This study questions the extent to which
domestic conflict is influenced by national, regional, and
international relationships. It is designed to answer
specific questions relating to the effects of neighboring
characteristics on a state's risk of conflict and
instability: What is the interaction between neighboring
conflict and political disorder? Do democratic neighborhoods
have different conflict trajectories than non-democratic
neighborhoods and if so, where and why? Given that most poor
countries are located in poor and conflictual neighborhoods,
to what extent is there a relationship between poverty and
political disorder in different regime neighborhoods? Using
spatial lag terms to specify neighboring regime
characteristics and multilevel models to differentiate
between explanatory levels, this study reiterates the
importance of domestic and neighboring factors in promoting
or diminishing the risk of instability and conflict.
However, the pronounced negative effects of autocratic and
anocratic neighborhoods are mitigated by a growing domestic
GDP. This study also finds that democratic neighborhoods are
more stable, regardless of income level. Research presented
here is unique in its contribution on how regime type is a
significant development indicator, which in turn is salient
in determining the risks of civil war across states.
Palabras clave
ARMED CONFLICT, BOUNDARIES, CIVIL CONFLICT, CIVIL PEACE, CIVIL UNREST, CIVIL WAR, CIVIL WARS, CONFLICT, CONFLICT PREVENTION, CONFLICT RISK, CONFLICTS, DEMOCRACY, DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTIONS, DURATION OF PEACE, ETHNIC FRACTIONALIZATION, ETHNIC FRAGMENTATION, ETHNIC GROUPS, ETHNICALLY DIVIDED SOCIETIES, HIGH RISK, INCOME, INTERNAL CONFLICT, INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY, INTERNATIONAL WAR, LEVEL OF DEVELOPMENT, LINGUISTIC FRACTIONALIZATION, MIDDLE EAST, MILITARY SPENDING, NATIONAL POPULATION, NEIGHBOR EFFECTS, NEIGHBORING CIVIL WARS, NEIGHBORING STATES, PEACE, POLICY RESEARCH, POLICY RESEARCH WORKING PAPER, POLITICAL INSTABILITY, POLITICAL PARTICIPATION, POLITICAL STABILITY, POOR, POST-CONFLICT, POST-CONFLICT SOCIETIES, PROGRESS, REBEL RECRUITMENT, REBELLION, REFUGEE, RISK OF CONFLICT, RISK OF WAR, SPATIAL LAG, WAR EPISODES, WAR LITERATURE, WAR PROJECT