THE THEORY OF CONTRARY OPINION: A TEST USING SENTIMENT INDICES IN FUTURES MARKETS

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dc.creatorSanders, Dwight R.
dc.creatorIrwin, Scott H.
dc.creatorLeuthold, Raymond M.
dc.date2017-04-01T15:22:18Z
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-09T03:11:42Z
dc.descriptionThe theory of contrary opinion predicts price reversals following extremes in market sentiment. This research tests a survey-based sentiment index's usefulness as a contrary indicator across 28 U.S. futures markets. Using rigorous time-series tests, the sentiment index displays only a sporadic and marginal ability to predict returns, and in those instances the pattern is one of return continuation--not reversals. Therefore, futures traders who rely solely upon sentiment indices as contrary indicators may be misguided.
dc.identifierdoi:10.22004/ag.econ.14673
dc.identifierhttps://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/14673/files/21010039.pdf
dc.identifierhttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/14673
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/528209
dc.languageeng
dc.publisher
dc.sourcehttp://ageconsearch.umn.edu/record/14673
dc.titleTHE THEORY OF CONTRARY OPINION: A TEST USING SENTIMENT INDICES IN FUTURES MARKETS
dc.typeText

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