Managing Vulnerability and Boosting Productivity in Agriculture through Weather Risk Mapping

Arce, Carlos; Uribe, Edgar

Managing Vulnerability and Boosting Productivity in Agriculture through Weather Risk Mapping

Autores

Arce, Carlos

Uribe, Edgar

Editor

World Bank, Washington, DC

Descripción

Productivity in the agricultural sector is inherently dependent on weather, such as variations in rainfall and temperature. As a result, weather risk events can cause losses in yield and production that translate into economic losses for producers, as well as other sector stakeholders that depend on income from agricultural trade, transport, processing, or export. This document is a guide for development practitioners and strategically presents a variety of mapping techniques for agricultural risk management and illustrates the application of these techniques for informing public and private sector development strategies. The introduction places weather risk mapping within the broader context of agricultural risk, explaining how mapping can enable risk identification, assessment and management activities, and each chapter elaborates on one or more of the technical components. A basic definition of agro-meteorology is provided, along with a discussion of different mapping techniques. The guide presents the available remote (satellite) databases of agro-meteorological variables that can be used for the purpose of weather risk mapping, assessing the advantages and drawbacks of each database and their suitability for different purposes. The document reviews current risk mapping analyses based on historical weather observations, which are typically used for risk identification and assessment, including climatologies, hazard and risk maps, climate regionalizations and agro-ecological zones (AEZ). The document also reviews forward-looking mapping techniques, known as diagnostic and forecasting analyses, specific examples of which are drawn from the United States, the European Union, and Australia. Finally, the guide provides instruction on how and why to conduct agro-ecological zoning, a technique that can be used to assess land-use types, land resources, land suitability, and climatic and agro-climatic regionalizations, as well as to inform land use recommendations. The concluding chapter demonstrates a step-by-step application of agro-ecological zoning in a case study of Mozambique.

Palabras clave

ABSORPTION, ADVERSE WEATHER, AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION, AGROMETEOROLOGY, ALTITUDE, ANNUAL PRECIPITATION, ANTHROPOGENIC CLIMATE CHANGE, ATLANTIC HURRICANE, ATLANTIC OCEAN, ATMOSPHERE, ATMOSPHERIC MODELS, ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES, BANKS, BASE TEMPERATURE, BASES, BIOMASS, BOUNDARY LAYER, CALCIUM, CALCIUM CARBONATE, CARBON, CARBON DIOXIDE, CARBON DYNAMICS, CATASTROPHIC DROUGHT, CATASTROPHIC EVENT, CATASTROPHIC EVENTS, CH4, CLIMATE, CLIMATE ANOMALIES, CLIMATE CHANGE, CLIMATE CHANGE SCENARIOS, CLIMATE CLASSIFICATION, CLIMATE DATA, CLIMATE PREDICTION, CLIMATE RESEARCH, CLIMATE RESEARCH UNIT, CLIMATE SCENARIO, CLIMATE SCENARIOS, CLIMATIC CENTERS, CLIMATIC HAZARDS, CLIMATIC PROFILE, CLIMATIC RESEARCH, CLIMATIC VARIABLES, CLIMATIC WATER BALANCE, CLIMATIC ZONES, CLIMATOLOGISTS, CLIMATOLOGY, CLOUD COVER, CLOUD WATER, CLOUDS, CO2, COASTAL FLOODS, COLORS, COOLING DEGREE DAYS, CRU, CYCLONE, CYCLONE TRACKS, DAILY TEMPERATURE, DECLARATIONS, DEGREE DAYS, DENITRIFICATION, DISASTERS, DROUGHT, DROUGHT CONDITIONS, DROUGHT INDICES, DROUGHT MITIGATION, DROUGHT STRESS, DROUGHTS, EARLY WARNING, ECOLOGICAL ZONES, ECOSYSTEM, EMISSIONS, ENSO, ENVIRONMENTAL TEMPERATURE, EVAPOTRANSPIRATION, EXCESS RAINFALL, EXTREME HEAT, EXTREME HEAT WAVES, EXTREME PRECIPITATION, EXTREME PRECIPITATION EVENTS, EXTREME TEMPERATURES, EXTREME WEATHER, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, FAMINE, FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEM, FARMER, FARMERS, FERTILIZATION, FLOOD, FLOOD DAMAGE, FLOOD DAMAGES, FLOOD RISK, FLOODED, FLOODING, FLOODS, FOOD SECURITY, FOREIGN AFFAIRS, FOREST, FOREST SERVICE, FORESTRY, FROST, GEOGRAPHIC REGIONS, GHG, GLOBAL RUNOFF DATA, GLOBAL SCALE, GLOBAL WARMING, GREEN HOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE, GREENHOUSE GAS, GREENHOUSE GASES, HAIL, HAILSTORM, HEAT WAVES, HUMIDITY, HURRICANE, HURRICANES, HYDROLOGICAL CONDITIONS, HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE, IMPACT OF WEATHER, IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, INFORMATION SYSTEM, INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INSURANCE, INTENSE PRECIPITATION EVENTS, INTENSITY OF DROUGHT, LAND SURFACE, LAND USE, LONG-TERM PRECIPITATION, MEAN TEMPERATURE, METEOROLOGICAL INFORMATION, METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, METEOROLOGICAL STATIONS, METEOROLOGICAL VARIABLES, METHANE, MINIMUM TEMPERATURE, MINIMUM TEMPERATURES, MONSOON, N2O, NATIONAL CLIMATE, NATURAL HAZARDS, NEGATIVE IMPACTS, NITROGEN, NITROUS OXIDE, NUTRIENTS, OXYGEN, PESTICIDES, PH, PLANT GROWTH, RADIATION, RAIN, RAINFALL, RAINFALL INTENSITY, RAINY SEASON, RAINY SEASONS, REGIONAL BASIS, REGIONAL POLICIES, REGIONAL WEATHER, RELATIVE HUMIDITY, RELIEF, RISK ANALYSIS, RISK ASSESSMENT, RUNOFF, RURAL COMMUNITIES, SATELLITES, SAVINGS, SCIENTIFIC INFORMATION, SCIENTISTS, SEASON, SEASONAL RAINFALL, SNOW, SNOW COVER, SODIUM, SOLAR RADIATION, SOUTHERN OSCILLATION, SOUTHERN OSCILLATION INDEX, STORM SURGES, SUBSTRATES, SUMMER TEMPERATURES, SUNSHINE, SURFACE TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE, TEMPERATURE DATA, TEMPERATURE DISTRIBUTION, TEMPERATURE PROFILES, TEMPERATURE RANGE, TEMPERATURE THRESHOLDS, TEMPORAL COVERAGE, TEMPORAL RESOLUTION, TEMPORAL RESOLUTIONS, TEMPORAL SCALES, TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS, TROPICAL CYCLONE, TROPICAL CYCLONES, VARIABILITY OF CLIMATE, WARNING SYSTEM, WATER CYCLE, WATER DISTRIBUTION, WATER SHORTAGE, WATER VAPOR, WEATHER, WEATHER CONDITIONS, WEATHER DATA, WEATHER FORECASTS, WEATHER MAPS, WEATHER OBSERVATIONS, WEATHER PATTERNS, WEATHER PREDICTION, WEATHER RISK MANAGEMENT, WEATHER SERVICES, WEATHER SHOCKS, WEATHER STATIONS, WEATHER VARIABILITY, WIND, WIND DATA, WIND SPEED