Crime and Persistent Punishment
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World Bank, Washington, DC
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The relationship between violence and
chronic poverty has been studied mostly in the context of
war or long-term episodes of conflict. In contrast to
previous studies, this paper explores whether violence that
does not include the shattering of infrastructure impacts
the chance that poverty may remain chronic. A long-run
perspective is gained by analyzing unique, recently gathered
panel data at the municipality level in the Mexican context,
covering the period from 1990 to 2010. Violence is measured
as the number of non-drug-related homicides per 100,000
inhabitants. A municipality is classified as chronically
poor if the percentage of people in food poverty remains
above the national average during two consecutive periods.
Econometric analysis is carried out through discrete choice
models. Putting the results in context, consider of a
chronically poor municipality in 2005 in which average
household income is below the 25th percentile in 2000. If
this municipality had a 10.47 non-drug-related homicide
rate, the 75th percentile in 2000, its chance of remaining
chronically poor into 2005 was almost double the
corresponding chance of a municipality with the same mean
household income but at the national median of violence in
2000 (zero non-drug-related homicides).
Palabras clave
HOMICIDE, UNEMPLOYMENT, HOUSEHOLD SURVEY, CONSUMPTION, AVERAGE HOUSEHOLD INCOME, HUMAN CAPITAL, POOR COMMUNITIES, FOOD POVERTY, CASH TRANSFER PROGRAM, POVERTY REDUCTION STRATEGIES, FOOD CONSUMPTION, INCOME, CRIMES, INCOME SHOCKS, POVERTY RATES, CHRONICALLY POOR, ELDERLY WOMEN, REGIONAL STUDY, POVERTY MAPPING, MURDER, PROPERTY CRIMES, INCOME DISTRIBUTION, DRUGS, HOUSING, FORM OF POVERTY, POOR PEOPLE, RURAL, POVERTY MAPPING METHODOLOGY, CRIME, TRANSFER PROGRAMS, SOCIAL PROGRAMS, AGRICULTURAL ACTIVITIES, CONFLICT, QUALITY OF LIFE, HOMICIDES, HOMICIDE RATES, MEASURES, POVERTY MEASURES, HOMICIDE RATE, REGION, POVERTY REDUCTION, SECURITY, SAVINGS, POVERTY SITUATION, REGIONS, WAR, VIOLENT CRIME, RURAL AREAS, POVERTY, VULNERABILITY TO POVERTY, INCOME GROWTH, INCOME INEQUALITY, INCIDENCE OF POVERTY, DRUG, FOOD REQUIREMENTS, TRANSFERS, VIOLENCE, CASH TRANSFER PROGRAMS, POVERTY DYNAMICS, HOUSEHOLD INCOME, POVERTY STATUS, POVERTY RATE, POOR, POOR INDIVIDUALS, CHRONIC POVERTY, DETERIORATION IN HEALTH CONDITIONS, CARIBBEAN REGION, CHANGES IN POVERTY, SOCIAL DEVELOPMENT, RURAL RESIDENCE, INEQUALITY