Improving Feeder Cattle Basis Forecasts
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Forecasting feeder cattle basis has long been difficult because of the myriad factors that influence basis, including input and output prices and lot characteristics. This research draws upon knowledge of the various factors that influence cash feeder cattle prices to develop hedonic feeder cattle basis models. Out-of-sample test results provide strong evidence that these hedonic models predict basis more accurately than the multi-year average forecasting approach commonly used by livestock producers. Results from this research were used to develop a web tool funded by USDA's Risk Management Agency (BeefBasis.com) that producers can use to forecast and understand feeder cattle basis.