Indonesia Economic Quarterly, December 2015

World Bank

Indonesia Economic Quarterly, December 2015

Autores

World Bank

Editor

Washington, DC

Descripción

The Indonesia Economic Quarterly (IEQ) has two main aims. First, it reports on the key developments over the past three months in Indonesia’s economy, and places these in a longerterm and global context. Based on these developments, and on policy changes over the period, the IEQ regularly updates the outlook for Indonesia’s economy and social welfare. Second, the IEQ provides a more in-depth examination of selected economic and policy issues, and analysis of Indonesia’s medium-term development challenges. It is intended for a wide audience, including policymakers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Indonesia’s evolving economy. This paper discusses about the economic conditions of Indonesia for the year 2015. Emerging market assets rebounded in October 2015 after the sharp losses recorded in August and September, when the uncertainty about the Chinese economic slowdown and the U.S. interest rate outlook was particularly high. Despite a more favorable market sentiment, capital flows to emerging economies have remained weak and borrowing costs relatively high. In addition to tight financing conditions, Indonesia faced subdued external demand for its exports in the near term and persistently low commodity prices over the medium run. In 2015, fire in Indonesia cost nearly twice that of reconstruction following the 2004 tsunami in Aceh. Agriculture and forestry have sustained losses and damages in trillions. Sustained exposure to haze could also lead to the volcano effect, i.e., a decrease in plant productivity in the short term due to limited sun exposure and a deleterious effect on plant physiology and photosynthesis. The recurring nature of Indonesia’s fire crisis is of particular concern. Another potential step in Indonesia’s new reform process was the country’s signaling its intention to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement in the near future. Whether membership materializes or not, the agreement is likely to have a limited impact on trade, because import tariffs in member countries are already low and Indonesia has trade agreements with most of them.

Palabras clave

TAX INCENTIVES, ENTERPRISE CREDIT, MONETARY POLICY, HOLDING, PORTFOLIO INFLOWS, EQUIPMENT, ACCOUNTING, DEPOSITS, FINANCIAL MARKET PARTICIPANTS, INTEREST, EMERGING MARKET BOND, EXTERNAL FUNDING, GOVERNMENT REGULATION, OPTION, TOTAL DEBT, EXPORTERS, REVENUES, PORTFOLIO, FISCAL POLICY, CAPITAL ADEQUACY, MARKET EQUITIES, LOAN, INVESTMENT LOANS, TREATIES, MARKET ACCESS, GOVERNMENT SUPPORT, INFORMATION SYSTEMS, DEBT BURDEN, LONG-TERM COST, MARKET PARTICIPANTS, CONVERSION, SECURITIES ISSUANCE, LABOR MARKET, CAPITAL ALLOCATION, ENFORCEMENT MECHANISMS, OIL PRICES, INVESTMENT SPENDING, DERIVATIVES, CURRENCY, EXPORT GROWTH, LONG-TERM COSTS, TRANCHES, GOVERNMENT BOND YIELD, CAPITAL FORMATION, BOND ISSUANCE, INTERNATIONAL BOND, EMERGING MARKET, DEBT, MARKETS, LOCAL GOVERNMENT, INFLATION RATE, SETTLEMENT, CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURE, BUDGET DEFICIT, DOMESTIC DEBT, SHORT-TERM CAPITAL, BORROWING COSTS, FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRANSACTIONS, EQUITIES, INVENTORY, LAND VALUE, COMMODITY PRICE, MARKET ECONOMIES, BANKING SECTOR, FISCAL DEFICIT, INVESTMENT DECISIONS, TRANSACTIONS, INVESTMENT FLOWS, LAND TITLES, EMERGING MARKETS, MACROECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT, INTEREST PAYMENTS, EQUITY INDICES, GOVERNMENT BUDGET, INTERNATIONAL TRADE, TRANSPARENCY, FUTURE, FOREIGN INFLOWS, FIXED CAPITAL, FOREIGN INVESTMENT, DISBURSEMENTS, ISSUANCE, SHARES, REAL EXCHANGE RATE, SPOT MARKET, LOCAL CURRENCY, GLOBAL BONDS, SECURITIES, INSURANCE, CAPITAL GRANTS, CURRENCIES, GOVERNMENT DEBT, HOLDING REQUIREMENT, GOVERNMENT BONDS, GLOBAL TRADE, REGISTRATION SYSTEM, DOMESTIC CREDIT, INVESTMENT ACTIVITY, TREATY, FINANCIAL DEVELOPMENTS, EMERGING MARKET EQUITIES, SECURITIES ISSUANCES, PORTFOLIO INVESTMENT, FINANCIAL SUPPORT, INTEREST RATE SPREADS, CONSUMER PRICE INDEX, LENDING, GOVERNMENT INVESTMENT, RISK AVERSION, PUBLIC SPENDING, PORTFOLIO FLOWS, COMMODITY PRICES, HUMAN DEVELOPMENT, TARIFFS, DEFICIT, PLEDGES, DEPOSIT, REGULATORY FRAMEWORK, BASIS POINTS, LIABILITY, OIL PRICE, LANDHOLDERS, VARIABLE COSTS, FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT, STOCK, FOREIGN INVESTORS, ASSET PRICES, EMERGING ECONOMIES, INTEREST RATE, PROPERTY RIGHTS, EXCHANGE, STOCK MARKET, BALANCE OF PAYMENTS, LOCAL GOVERNMENTS, CONSUMER GOODS, ISSUANCES, EQUITY MARKET, INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT, POLITICAL ECONOMY, RURAL CREDIT, BONDS, MACROECONOMIC CONDITIONS, PREFERENTIAL MARKET ACCESS, BOND SPREAD, TAX, CASH TRANSFER, INCOME TAX, NON-PERFORMING LOANS, GOVERNMENT BOND, BOND YIELDS, BUDGETING, PLEDGE, BENEFICIARIES, INFLATION, INTERNATIONAL BANK, FOREIGN INVESTMENTS, EMERGING MARKET ECONOMIES, BUDGET, MATURITY, INTERNATIONAL FINANCE, TRADE BALANCE, BOND INDEX, GLOBAL ECONOMY, AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES, DISBURSEMENT, BOND YIELD, CONTRACTS, TRADING, INTEREST RATES, CAPITAL OUTFLOWS, PRIVATE INVESTMENT, RETURN, ECONOMIC POLICIES, BASIS POINT, DIRECT INVESTMENT, LOANS, RESERVES, INVENTORIES, GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, RETURN ON ASSETS, FINANCE, FOREIGN CURRENCY, BROKER, MARKET REQUIREMENTS, TAXES, ACCESS TO INFORMATION, MARKET INTEREST RATE, EXPENDITURE, DOUBLE TAXATION, GOVERNMENT SECURITIES, EQUITY, INCOME TAXES, INVESTORS, FORWARD MARKET, INVESTMENT LOAN, TRANCHE, LAND AS COLLATERAL, FIXED INVESTMENT, BUDGETS, WORKING CAPITAL, CONTRACT, EXPENDITURES, CAPITAL FLOWS, PROPERTY, CURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICIT, BALANCE SHEET, MARKET, RURAL BANK, FOREIGN EXCHANGE, LAND TITLE, EXPROPRIATION, TRADE SECTORS, GOODS, INVESTOR, TRADING SYSTEM, SECURITY, BOND SALE, BANK LOANS, FINANCIAL MARKET, STOCKS, INVESTMENT, BOND, LEGAL PROTECTION, INTERNATIONAL INVESTOR, SOVEREIGN BONDS, SHARE, COLLATERAL, POVERTY, FINANCIAL MARKETS, TARIFF, CAPITAL INFLOWS, REVENUE, EXTERNAL DEBT, PROFIT, LEVIES, INVESTMENTS, RISK MANAGEMENT, INTELLECTUAL PROPERTY, CREDIT GROWTH, FINANCIAL RISK, EXCHANGE RATE, PROFITS, GUARANTEE, SWAP, EXTERNAL BORROWING, CLAIMANT