Europe and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia

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dc.creatorWorld Bank
dc.date2012-03-19T17:24:43Z
dc.date2012-03-19T17:24:43Z
dc.date2009-09-17
dc.date.accessioned2026-07-01T01:08:22Z
dc.descriptionThe financial crisis threatens the welfare of about 160 million people in the Europe and Central Asia (ECA) region who are poor or are just above the poverty line. Using pre-crisis household data along with aggregate macroeconomic outturns to simulate the impact of the crisis on households, transmitted via credit market shocks, price shocks, and income shocks, this report finds that adverse effects are widespread and that poor and non-poor households alike are vulnerable. By 2010, for the region as a whole, some 11 million more people will likely be in poverty and over 23 million more people will find themselves just above the poverty line because of the crisis. The aggregate results mask the heterogeneity of impact within countries, including the concentration of the poverty impact in selected economic sectors. Meanwhile, stress tests on household indebtedness in selected countries suggest that ongoing macroeconomic shocks will expand the pool of households unable to service their debt, many of them from among the ranks of relatively richer households. In fact, already there are rising household loan delinquency rates. Finally, there is evidence that the food and fuel crisis is not over and a new round of price increases, via currency adjustments, will have substantial effects on net consumers. Lessons from last year's food crisis suggest that the poor are the worst hit, as many of the poor in Albania, Kyrgyz Republic, and Tajikistan, for example, are net food consumers, with limited access to agricultural assets and inputs. The resilience of households to macroeconomic shocks ultimately depends upon the economy's institutional readiness, the flexibility of the economic policy regime, and the ability of the population to adjust. However, compared with previous crises, the scope for households to engage in their traditional coping strategies may be more limited. Fiscal policy responses in the short-term are also constrained by rapidly falling revenues. Governments in ECA have to make difficult choices over what spending items to protect and what items to cut, social protection programs to reform and scale-up, and new interventions to mitigate the impact of the crisis.
dc.formatapplication/pdf
dc.formattext/plain
dc.identifierhttp://www-wds.worldbank.org/external/default/main?menuPK=64187510&pagePK=64193027&piPK=64187937&theSitePK=523679&menuPK=64187510&searchMenuPK=64187283&siteName=WDS&entityID=000333037_20090924233757
dc.identifierhttps://hdl.handle.net/10986/3110
dc.identifierhttps://doi.org/10.1596/3110
dc.identifier.urihttp://hdl.handle.net/123456789/415526
dc.languageEnglish
dc.publisherWorld Bank
dc.rightsCC BY 3.0 IGO
dc.rightshttp://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/3.0/igo/
dc.rightsWorld Bank
dc.subjectACCESS TO CREDIT
dc.subjectACCESS TO FINANCE
dc.subjectACCOUNTING
dc.subjectADVANCED ECONOMIES
dc.subjectASSET CLASSES
dc.subjectASSET POSITIONS
dc.subjectASSET PRICE
dc.subjectASSET PRICES
dc.subjectASSET QUALITY
dc.subjectASSET VALUES
dc.subjectBALANCE SHEET
dc.subjectBALANCE SHEETS
dc.subjectBANK CREDIT
dc.subjectBANKING MARKETS
dc.subjectBANKING SECTOR
dc.subjectBANKING SECTORS
dc.subjectBANKING SYSTEM
dc.subjectBANKING SYSTEMS
dc.subjectBASIS POINTS
dc.subjectBOND VALUATIONS
dc.subjectBORROWING
dc.subjectCAPITAL ACCUMULATION
dc.subjectCAPITAL ADEQUACY
dc.subjectCAPITAL FLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL INFLOWS
dc.subjectCAPITAL OUTFLOWS
dc.subjectCDS
dc.subjectCENTRAL BANK
dc.subjectCOLLATERAL
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICE
dc.subjectCOMMODITY PRICES
dc.subjectCONSUMER DURABLES
dc.subjectCONTINGENT LIABILITIES
dc.subjectCREDIT CONSTRAINTS
dc.subjectCREDIT CRUNCH
dc.subjectCREDIT DEFAULT
dc.subjectCREDIT DEFAULT SWAPS
dc.subjectCREDIT GROWTH
dc.subjectCREDIT MARKET
dc.subjectCREDIT MARKETS
dc.subjectCREDIT OUTSTANDING
dc.subjectCREDIT RISK
dc.subjectCREDIT RISKS
dc.subjectCREDIT SOURCES
dc.subjectCREDIT SPREADS
dc.subjectCREDITOR
dc.subjectCREDITOR BANK
dc.subjectCREDITOR BANKS
dc.subjectCRISIS COUNTRIES
dc.subjectCURRENCY DEPRECIATIONS
dc.subjectCURRENT ACCOUNT DEFICITS
dc.subjectDEBT
dc.subjectDEBT BURDENS
dc.subjectDEBT HOLDING
dc.subjectDEBT OBLIGATIONS
dc.subjectDEBT REPAYMENTS
dc.subjectDEBT SERVICE
dc.subjectDELINQUENCY RATES
dc.subjectDEPOSIT
dc.subjectDEPOSITS
dc.subjectDEVALUATIONS
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRIES
dc.subjectDEVELOPING COUNTRY
dc.subjectDIVERSIFICATION
dc.subjectDOMESTIC BANKING
dc.subjectDOMESTIC CREDIT
dc.subjectDOMESTIC LIQUIDITY
dc.subjectDURABLES
dc.subjectEARNINGS
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITIES
dc.subjectECONOMIC ACTIVITY
dc.subjectECONOMIC CRISIS
dc.subjectECONOMIC DEVELOPMENTS
dc.subjectECONOMIC EFFICIENCY
dc.subjectECONOMIC GROWTH
dc.subjectECONOMIC POLICY
dc.subjectEMERGING ECONOMIES
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKET
dc.subjectEMERGING MARKETS
dc.subjectEMPLOYMENT OPPORTUNITIES
dc.subjectEQUIPMENT
dc.subjectEQUITIES
dc.subjectEQUITY HOLDINGS
dc.subjectEQUITY INDEX
dc.subjectEQUITY INDICES
dc.subjectEQUITY MARKET
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectEXCHANGE RATES
dc.subjectEXPORT EARNINGS
dc.subjectEXPORT GROWTH
dc.subjectEXPORTERS
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FINANCE
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FINANCING
dc.subjectEXTERNAL FUNDING
dc.subjectEXTERNAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectFAMILIES
dc.subjectFAMILY INCOME
dc.subjectFINANCIAL ASSETS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL CRISIS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL LITERACY
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKET
dc.subjectFINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL POLICIES
dc.subjectFINANCIAL RISK
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SECTOR DEVELOPMENT
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SHOCKS
dc.subjectFINANCIAL SUPPORT
dc.subjectFINANCING REQUIREMENTS
dc.subjectFISCAL DEFICITS
dc.subjectFISCAL POLICY
dc.subjectFIXED EXCHANGE RATE
dc.subjectFOREIGN BANK
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCIES
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY
dc.subjectFOREIGN CURRENCY EXPOSURES
dc.subjectFOREIGN INVESTORS
dc.subjectFUNDING SOURCES
dc.subjectGENDER
dc.subjectGLOBAL DEVELOPMENT FINANCE
dc.subjectGLOBAL FINANCIAL STABILITY
dc.subjectGLOBAL TRADE
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT DEFICITS
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT POLICIES
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT POLICY
dc.subjectGOVERNMENT SPENDING
dc.subjectHOME OWNERSHIP
dc.subjectHOST COUNTRIES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD DEBT
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOME
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD INCOMES
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD WEALTH
dc.subjectHOUSEHOLD WELFARE
dc.subjectHOUSING LOANS
dc.subjectHUMAN CAPITAL
dc.subjectINCOME FLOWS
dc.subjectINCOME SHOCK
dc.subjectINCOME SHOCKS
dc.subjectINDEBTED HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectINDEBTEDNESS
dc.subjectINFLATION
dc.subjectINFLATION RISKS
dc.subjectINFORMAL CREDIT
dc.subjectINSURANCE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE
dc.subjectINTEREST RATE RISKS
dc.subjectINTEREST RATES
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL BANKING
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCE
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL MARKETS
dc.subjectINTERNATIONAL FINANCIAL STATISTICS
dc.subjectINVENTORIES
dc.subjectINVESTMENT PROJECTS
dc.subjectLABOR MARKET
dc.subjectLIABILITY
dc.subjectLIABILITY SIDE
dc.subjectLIMITED ACCESS
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY PROBLEMS
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY RISK
dc.subjectLIQUIDITY RISKS
dc.subjectLIVING STANDARDS
dc.subjectLOAN
dc.subjectLOAN DELINQUENCY
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCIES
dc.subjectLOCAL CURRENCY
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC CRISES
dc.subjectMACROECONOMIC STABILITY
dc.subjectMARKET CONDITIONS
dc.subjectMARKET PRICES
dc.subjectMARKET PRICING
dc.subjectMATURITY
dc.subjectMATURITY MISMATCHES
dc.subjectMICRO DATA
dc.subjectMIGRANT LABOR
dc.subjectMONETARY FUND
dc.subjectMONETARY POLICY
dc.subjectMORTGAGE
dc.subjectMORTGAGE DEBT
dc.subjectMORTGAGE LOANS
dc.subjectMORTGAGES
dc.subjectMUTUAL FUND
dc.subjectMUTUAL FUNDS
dc.subjectNATIONAL BANK
dc.subjectOIL PRICE
dc.subjectPENSION
dc.subjectPENSION FUND
dc.subjectPENSION FUNDS
dc.subjectPENSION PROVISION
dc.subjectPENSION SYSTEM
dc.subjectPENSION SYSTEMS
dc.subjectPENSIONS
dc.subjectPOLICY RESPONSE
dc.subjectPOLICY RESPONSES
dc.subjectPOLITICAL ECONOMY
dc.subjectPORTFOLIO
dc.subjectPORTFOLIO RISK
dc.subjectPRICE CHANGES
dc.subjectPRICE MOVEMENTS
dc.subjectPRIVATE CAPITAL
dc.subjectPRIVATE CREDIT
dc.subjectPUBLIC FINANCES
dc.subjectPUBLIC INVESTMENTS
dc.subjectRECESSION
dc.subjectREMITTANCE
dc.subjectREMITTANCES
dc.subjectRESERVES
dc.subjectRETURNS
dc.subjectRISK AVERSION
dc.subjectRISK MITIGATION
dc.subjectSAFETY NET
dc.subjectSAFETY NETS
dc.subjectSAVINGS
dc.subjectSECONDARY MARKET
dc.subjectSOCIAL CAPITAL
dc.subjectSOLVENCY
dc.subjectSOVEREIGN BOND
dc.subjectSTANDARD ASSET
dc.subjectSTOCKS
dc.subjectTRADE BALANCE
dc.subjectTRADE CREDITS
dc.subjectTRADING
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT
dc.subjectUNEMPLOYMENT INSURANCE
dc.subjectUNION
dc.subjectVALUATION
dc.subjectVULNERABLE HOUSEHOLDS
dc.subjectWEALTH EFFECT
dc.subjectWEALTH EFFECTS
dc.titleEurope and Central Asia - The Crisis Hits Home : Stress Testing Households in Europe and Central Asia

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